Tag - UBS
Analyst Steven Milunovich of UBS has cited market research from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) in a note to investors that contains both good and bad news: he believes Apple will beat last year's record of iPhone sales in the December quarter (Apple's fiscal first quarter) by a slim margin, but also says that Apple probably sold less of its highest-end iPhone models than it did a year prior. As a result, the average selling price (ASP) of an iPhone may have dropped by as much as 3.5 percent.
Two investment analyst firms, Barclays Capital and UBS, have issued their first predictions on the number of iPhones Apple is likely to sell in its fiscal second quarter, which concludes at the end of March. The firms disagree on the exact number of units, but are within 10 percent of each other, ranging from 54 million to 58 million units. UBS' Evidence Lab is predicting higher numbers, but Wall Street estimates remain conservative.
Three separate iPhone 4S launch day studies have shown noticeably more buyers being switchers from the BlackBerry and other platforms. The most detailed, a 195-person study by UBS analyst Maynard Um in New York City, had 75 percent coming from an existing iPhone versus 80 percent a year ago. Of the remaining group, about 10 percent were jumping from a BlackBerry, while five percent each were coming from LG and Samsung phones; four percent were coming from Motorola.
UBS analyst Maynard Um saw tablets disrupting PCs more than previously thought in a new investment note on Wednesday. He upped predictions for tablets in 2011 from 55 million to 60 million based mostly on Apple's skill at selling the iPad, shipments of which he saw growing from a previously predicted 32.3 million to a much larger 39.9 million, or about two thirds of the entire space. PC growth, which Um once saw as 6.3 percent, was now only going to hit 4.5 percent, both from the expected impact of tablets on netbooks but also because of slow growth outside of business buyers.
The iPad 2 is leading the way to improved financial numbers for Apple's fiscal third quarter, according to Apple analyst Maynard Um of UBS Equity Research. He is raising his forecast for the quarter -- Apple announces Q3 results July 19 -- due to stronger iPad sales, now estimated at 7.9 million units, alongside improved component pricing that Um projects will add 0.6 percent to Apple's gross margin. Shaw says a less dilutive back-to-school promotion that provides a $100 credit in apps on the App Store -- instead of $220 in free hardware with physical costs to Apple as was the case in previous years -- will factor into the improved margin as well.
Apple's rollout for the Verizon iPhone will wait until after CES wraps up, sources said Wednesday night. The launch would arrive until sometime after the event's end on January 9, but when it would take place hadn't been narrowed down. Bloomberg speculated that it might come before Valentine's Day but didn't claim inside knowledge.
The BlackBerry may be handed one of its more significant losses as insiders said today that JPMorgan and UBS are working to allow Android and iPhone hardware for their workers. JPMorgan is purportedly testing "a few hundred" devices of both varieties to make sure they work well with its Exchange system, Bloomberg said. Under the proposed final plan, staff would have to pay for the phones themselves, unlike the BlackBerry, but could use it for both personal and company work.
UBS analyst Maynard Um today reported in an investment note that back to school sales were still slow but appeared to favor Apple. Checks at stores and staff showed that most stores were only seeing a "mild" bump in sales from students and that most of the heavy traffic was at Apple retail stores. The iPhone 4 and iPad were responsible for lineups, but the new iMac was also seeing strong demand.
UBS has come out positive on AAPL stock following CEO Steve Jobs' response to the iPhone 4 reception issue. With Apple offering free cases and an option for a full refund, UBS analyst Maynard Um believes Apple has made a good effort to resolve the issue without a massive hit to its bottom line. The cost of the free bumpers should result in a loss of roughly $.03 in the next quarter. Um calls that a minimal impact, especially considering that some forecasters believed a recall would have cost the company $1.5 Billion.
An actual iPhone for Verizon could have a major impact not only on Apple but on Google, Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner said on Wednesday. He estimated that at least 12 million current customers could get iPhones if they reach the network next year. The gain could add $7 billion in revenue by itself.