View this article at: http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/11/17/piper.on.iphone.mac.sales/
Monday, Nov 17, 2008 9:45am
iPhone, Mac sales expected to survive Dec. quarter
This year's December quarter should be rough for Apple, but not as terrible as has been predicted elsewhere, note analysts with Piper Jaffray. The group says that it spent 25 hours in Apple Stores across the US last week, and based on this, it is estimating a 5 to 15 percent sequential decline in iPhone shipments, with a target figure of 8 percent. While this is liable to be disappointing, given that the holiday season normally boosts shipments 15 percent, Piper observes that this is far superior to results from other checks which have pointed to a decline as sharp as 40 percent. The improved estimate is based on both the typical holiday bump and an expanded international market, which could theoretically support as many as 989 million iPhone subscribers versus the September quarter's 153 million.

Macs are expected to suffer a 5 percent sequential decline, but should still sell in excess of the 2.6 million units previously anticipated. This is first because year-over-year checks show a 90 percent increase instead of 13, but also because of the new aluminum MacBooks launched in October, which Piper suggests have likely fulfilled a "pent up demand." Because October was not represented in recent checks, it is uncertain how much of a push it might provide to the quarter; November demand is described as being "healthy," however.