"We believe a near-term launch would be unusual and highly risky," said Shope. "It took Apple over two years to launch its first low-end iPod (the iPod mini). Not all consumers want a combined phone and music player, so Apple is likely to keep the iPhone and iPod as distinct business segments for as long as this makes economic sense." The analyst also issued a warning to investors about basing estimates on a single patent filing, reminding industry watchers that many of Apple's patents rarely make their way into shipping products. Shope considers Apple's stock price volatile due to the extensive dependence on the iPhone's launch success, and is holding a neutral share rating until the air clears on whether the iPhone is helping or harming Apple's bottom line.