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http://www.macnn.com/articles/01/06/13/gs.expects/

GS expects AAPL to outperform market

updated 08:55 am EDT, Wed June 13, 2001

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Goldman Sachs says it expects "material outperformance by Apple over the next few months based on anticipated in-line results in an environment where peers are disappointing and where some expect Apple to disappoint." The report says the company's new product lineup will allow them to buck industry trends with a possible upside of 25-30% in the next six months. Meanwhile, another analyst warns: "Don't Be Surprised by an Apple Warning." [RealPlayer needed]

by MacNN Staff

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06/13, 09:13am | report spam | close Reply | delete
just sold

oh well.

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06/13, 09:28am | report spam | close Reply | delete
All I know is...

Apple stunned everyone by coming in a dime better per share than the street expected, and NOBODY saw it coming. Obviously the Goldman Sachs critique sounds nice, but I'm holding my breath to see what happens.

Anybody know when the cut-off date is for announcing warnings?

And while I'm at it here, I think AAPL will be okay this go-around, with the sucess (I would assume) of the iBooks and more OSX sales. I hope...

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06/13, 09:38am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Issues for AAPL

1) OSX transition likely to put some purchases on hold
2) Opening 25 stores will cost many millions to open

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06/13, 09:45am | report spam | close Reply | delete
issue

err, no.

os x is bundled now, so expecting purchasing delays because of that is, mmmm, shal we say,... moronic?

and yes, the stores cost money, of course. not sure how/when those investments show up in the books though.

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06/13, 10:12am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Inventory

There's an article in the latest UK MacUser that says Apple is struggling with excess stock, particularly lower end G4s (ie 466-533MHz machines) - but at the same time is selling as many 733s as it can build.

I think this points to something we have all known for a long time - Apple is going to continue suffering until it can offer persuasive upgrade paths. Right now we've had G4 out with 300-400MHz processors for close to 2 years, and G3s with 300-450MHz for about nine months longer. For a good deal of those owners current upgrade options aren't going to move them (unless they have the cash to splash on a 733).

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06/13, 10:13am | report spam | close Reply | delete
flip a coin...

... and you'll do better than most of these "analysts". But I do agree that there is no reason to assume that AAPL should follow exactly the same trends as other box makers-- they ARE different.

I agree with "issue"-- since X is pre-installed, that actually gives me incentive to ACCELERATE my purchases. I know I can try it without the fear of zorching a working system during installation. I don't doubt that X will be fabulous someday-- Apple has always delivered for us in the past-- but it is still more of a work in progress than I am comfortable with.

I expect the stores-- though they may well turn out to be less than profitable-- will help us get our marketshare up. The idea of seeing computers WORKING THE WAY THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO-- for you instead of against you-- you won't see that in CompUSA where half the machines, Mac or PC, are sitting in a corner blinking error messages. Nor will you find any buying inspiration in most work places. A typical Windows-based business has to hire one tech for every ten CPU's!

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06/13, 10:23am | report spam | close Reply | delete
apples gonna kick

this july will be smokin! were looking at
1. new power mac enclosures and speeds. thats pretty kick a** right there
2. new imac enclosures hopefully reigniting the imac sales a bit. dont expect a huge roar but a decent one.
3. update to osX and os 9.1. both are due for a update in about a month near expo time.
4.i tunes update- see mac os rumours

it will be slamin this summer with new s*** everywhere and by winter apple will be offering upgrades on all thedse new products to help it go through the holidays with people buying the new upgraded products and the new discounted discontinued products. h*** i want to save up for dual g4/533 by years end or the older dual 500. you know how cheap those will be? you get a multi processor app and your slammin!

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06/13, 10:36am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Titanium? New iBook?

Neither of the above were mentioned in the piece. As I recall, portables are anywhere from 40-50% of Apple's revenue. It looks like both are flying off the shelves. 5 months of TiBook and 3 months of iBook sales should noticeably boost profits. Not to mention how the new iMac is received - I think it'll be a real hit, and sales to the education channel, which are due to pick up after last year's debacle. My target: $28, by August 15.

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06/13, 10:42am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Re: Issues for AAPL

2) Opening 25 stores will cost many millions to open

The expenses of opening and operating the stores were included in Apple's financial forecasts earlier this year, so unless sales are abysmal they will not harm the results. Also, Apple has so much cash in the bank the initial expenses of these first stores are a blip on the radar for this quarter.

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06/13, 10:48am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Portables

portables don't account for anything like 40% of Apple's sales - if that's the case now it just shows how badly everything else is selling.

Anyone got a pointer to unit sales for Apple, I can't find one anywhere?

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06/13, 11:10am | report spam | close Reply | delete
analysts

oh jeez. more bs from a buncha soots.

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06/13, 11:18am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Issues for APPL

2) Opening 25 stores will cost many millions to open
Yeah, well, they pay the first years rent with the first weekends sales.
Could be worse.

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06/13, 11:47am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Retail stores

The audio comments regarding Apple's retail stores was pretty lame. The first two stores had fantastic openning weekends, but since Apple has not released any sales figures since then, these "analysts" assume that the things are not going well? Based on what? Pure negative speculation.

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06/13, 12:00pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
portable sales

just read that portables are 30 percent of apple sales and growing.

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06/13, 12:01pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Sales are going well

Sales at the Apple stores are going well. I work at a CompUSA and we can't get enough of the new iBooks. We've seen a definite upswing in interest for Macs; even the iMacs. Seems people have heard OS X is now shipping on Macs, and that has made a difference.

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06/13, 12:22pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
iMac

If Apple really does come out with a revamped, hot s**t iMac this July, boy-howdy. It's gonna rock.

And if you haven't seen the infamous mockup of what COULD be...

http://www.acorncreative.tv/imac2.html

OMG....I wish...

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06/13, 12:37pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
New iMac

I like the picture, I personally like the design - all very well done, but I reckon Apple will be more conservative in their design - more mass appeal.

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06/13, 01:27pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
imac wish

wow that is beautiful.

especially the part about how it's less than apple's current price for a 17" lcd alone...

wish they would. i'd buy one in a heartbeat. although, although... are those... b****? h'm.

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06/13, 01:54pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Re: New iMac

I personally dont like that design very much. Now Applele's idea of a new iMac is MUCH cooler, and more innovative

http://www.applele.com/himac_r3a.html

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06/13, 02:04pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
hmm

Expect Apple to issue a profit warning for its current, third fiscal quarter. So says analyst Elyssa Jaffe at little-known (to us, at any rate) IDEAadvisor.

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06/13, 02:29pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Mmmm....

That iMac mockup macks me RANDY....

s***...

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06/13, 02:45pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Second design

If it could be made for a competitive price it could be a winner, and by competitive I mean like the iBook is competitive in the laptop market (I'll just wait for the flames)

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06/13, 03:07pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Analyst have always

looked down upon Apple for one reason....... market share. Until Apple can show they're making a dent in Microsoft's desktop dominance, they will never have anything good to say. Sales are one thing, but it's a matter of who Apple's selling to. Selling to the Mac faithfull is pretty much a given. Mac users will always upgrade at some point, , but it does nothing for market share. It's the non Macintosh users that analyst want to see purchasing the Apple box. When market share starts to grow you'll hear them sing a different tune.

Yet. Regardless of the tune they're singing, I put little value in anything they have to say. They're out to make money for their firm and its institutional clients, not the everyday investor. When an institution wants to sell, they scream buy so the institutions have someone to sell to. Then who's left holding the bag. Last years loss of over 5 trillion dollars in the market should have told investors something. Where were all the analyst who were telling people to sell and get out. Nowhere. At least not until the stocks dropped 50 percent or better.

The only one thing worse than a stock market analyst is a person who buys stocks based on their recommendations.

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06/13, 04:23pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Huh

Did that paragraph make sense?

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06/13, 05:27pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Re: Huh

nah, it didn't make any sense to me either :)

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06/13, 09:32pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Apple Ok

Well, I do agree that building tons of stores will cost a lot of moeny for apple. However this is a business expense and creative accounting will make construction not look bad on quartly reports. So this is not really a big issue.

After seeing how well California ComputerWare stores use to profit, I have no doubt that Apple stores will also make a butt load of money. The first wave will die down, but local install bases will build after a year or two, and like ComputerWare, Apple stores will be PACKED after work on on the weekends. By the way... apple stores look much cooler then then (the still quite cool) ComputerWare stores.

OS X is another big deal for Apple. Apple needs to continue to get developer tools and docs out. and things will get better. I am starting to see the start of the software wave now. Big apps are starting to come to the table, and summer will probably boom.

OS X seems to be pushing sales if anything. Dsipit the lack of software, Aqua is selling this damn thing. I have already had 3 office Wintel converts.

The thing that is KILLING Apple right now is hardware. I know for a fact that Apple can get 40% speed increases while still allowing a price drop. Standard hardware is at an all time low now. Apple has taken advantage of this for its portables, but now they need to beef up desktops.

Apple's hardware did NOT make a profit last quarter. However, now I think they know what they did wrong. I'll have to wait untill macworld to be sure of that.

Worst comes to worst Apple will just sell off some more ARM shares to hide their shame again ;). That's what they did last quarter.

Apple is still a strong stock to hold.

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06/13, 10:21pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Hardware

I have a hard time believing that Apple is selling many desktop macs. The iMac is too long in the tooth, althogh it's specs are ok, they could me much better (faster CPU, better GPU).

But the powermacs? What an awful mess. What happened to closing the MHz gap, Steve? I own a PMG4 400MHz and NOTHING that Apple has come out with recently is a significant speed boost over what I have, except for the 733MHz system. 733MHz 7450 GPU should be the LOWEST end powermac. And the prices on ALL powermacs MUST come down.

Apple is stupid not to upgrade their powermac line more often. At MWNY, we had better seem something amazing, I'm talkin' 1.2-1.5 GHz G4s, or else I'm going to b**** up a storm.

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06/13, 10:30pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
Re: Hardware

Have you been asleep? The mHz gap is a boondoggle, unless you multiply by about 1.5! This is the difference between Apple's RISC architecture and Intel CISC.

5,000 Ferrari rpm will always mean more than 5,000 Yugo rpm, right?

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06/13, 10:48pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
re: Hardware

While I agree that MHZ isnt everything, and that MHZ for MHZ the power PC kicks PC's a**. BUT; we're not talking about the Pee Cee world having a 1/4 or even 1/3 more mhz lead (which would have the powermacs still leading a nice way), but over doubling the mhz the best Apple can offer.

And considering how much more a high end PM is it's not really exceptible. Apple MUST sort this mess up. Not having quite as much MHZ as the wintel world is fine, but less than half? Come on.

I agree with the chap previous, I too have a PMG4 400 and NOTHING thats out from apple desktop wise, gives any real incentive to upgrade. Now if I can get an entry PM at 733 it would be a start..

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06/13, 11:05pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
The Cure For Lo MHz

is simply SMP. we'll see dual- and quad-CPU G4s in July and the drumbeat will be what made the Cray X-MP great: Parallelism!

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06/14, 01:20am | report spam | close Reply | delete
Hardware, etc

If Apple made the leap to DDR RAM we would see some sweet MP machines. They are limited in real SMP muscle by front-side bus and memory bandwidth. DDR would push that problem far enough enough into the future that we wouldn't be whining until we wanted quad G5 systems (and that would be 16 cores, if the spec rumors are to believed). Don't worry, I know that is a bit of an exageration (OS X tells me that is spelled wrong but I don't have time to figure it out).
The current version of the G4+ is rumored to have some SMP issues but that should be solved by the 7460 "Apollo" systems. Since they are supposed to easily get to 1.2 GHz that wouldn't be a problem and we would have lots of room to breath.

In any case, I am hoping for something sweet from MacWorld like the rest of us.

Just a shareholder and user keeping hopes high,
~/indigo

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06/14, 01:51pm | report spam | close Reply | delete
RE: apples gonna kick

Take it easy, Vanilla.

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GS expects AAPL to outperform market

updated 08:55 am EDT, Wed June 13, 2001

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