updated 08:00 pm EDT, Thu March 29, 2012
Believes Apple will continue to gain marketshare
Bank of Montreal (BMO) Capital analyst Keith Bachman has issued a note to investors raising price targets for AAPL to $675 (up from $590) as well as his estimate of iPad and iPhone sales for both the current quarter and the rest of 2012. He is particularly upbeat on iPads, saying that he thinks corporate adoption will continue and influence the stretching of PC replacement cycles, particularly replacing notebooks for many functions, Barron's reports.
Bachman believes the iPad will not only gain share in the tablet category but will continue to eat into the traditional PC market, particularly by eroding sales of netbooks, ultrabooks and notebooks. He predicts that Apple will gain at least one percentage point of worldwide marketshare by 2013, largely spearheaded by the iPad. He cited a recent InformationWeek study that showed no sign of decline in iOS adoption by enterprise and corporate clients.
"Importantly, if we look at iPads, we note that Apple's share has also increased relative to all product categories," Bachman wrote. "The iPad's share relative to the notebook market has increased from seven percent in CY2010 to 19 percent in CY2011, and increased from four percent in CY2010 to 11 percent in CY2011 relative to the total PC market. We believe this trend will continue, and we assume iPad share increases to 33 percent of the notebook market and 20 percent of the total PC market in CY2013."
He has reiterated an "Outperform" rating on AAPL and raised his estimate on iPads to 11 million units sold this quarter (up from 10 million), consequently upgrading his overall 2012 estimate to 54.1 million iPads sold for the year. The assumptions may be conservative, as Apple has already reported selling over three million iPads during the first four days of availability earlier this month.
For iPhones, Bachman has raised estimates to 30 million (up from 29 million) for the quarter and the yearly estimate to 124 million units for fiscal 2012. He expects 35.5 billion in revenue and $9.61 per share in profit, both up from previous estimates. For all of 2012, Bachman is now predicting $156.3 billion and $43.50 EPS, both up from earlier predictions. [via Barron's]