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IHS iSuppli guesses Windows Phone to pass iPhone by 2015

updated 06:55 pm EST, Thu January 19, 2012

iSuppli optimistic Nokia will revive Windows Phone

IHS iSuppli made an optimistic estimate late Wednesday that Windows Phone would overtake the iPhone in market share by 2015. It saw Nokia's switch to Windows Phones like the Lumia 900 as a catalyst, taking Windows Phone from just 1.9 percent in 2011 to nine percent in 2012 and 16.7 percent in 2015. At that rate, it would just be ahead of Apple, which researchers thought would have 16.7 percent.

Much of the study's hopes were pinned on the belief that the Lumia 900 was part of a much deeper commitment to North America, which many consider the heart of the smartphone world and crucial to getting market share. The "hot" LTE phone, along with deals for multiple phones on two carriers each in Canada and the US, was proof Nokia understood that it had to go through carriers in the area.

Other companies would contribute to Windows Phone's bottom line, but the study predicted that half of all phones on the platform sold in 2012 would come from Nokia, and 62 percent by 2013. Corporate deals would also help Nokia, IHS iSuppli said, although none of these have been announced so far.

The estimate has the advantage of real-world devices to work from but still carries with it certain assumptions from earlier predictions that arrived before Nokia even showed its first Windows Phone. It presumes that Nokia's brand name is still strong enough to recapture lost share and that many of those abandoning Symbian over the years will follow Nokia into Windows Phone rather than switch to Android or the iPhone.

Microsoft, despite investing hundreds of millions of dollars into Windows Phone marketing, has been unable to get much share and may not necessarily get a savior in Nokia. Early murmurs from Europe have alluded to slow Lumia 800 sales there as well, which if sustained would leave Nokia in the same position it was in before it dropped Symbian.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. Paul Huang

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +17

    Yes, sure

    iPod killer
    iPad killer
    and now iPhone killer.

    Study sponsored by M$FT.

  1. Paul Huang

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    Why Windows Phone is toast

    Spend some time reading the terms and conditions of the iTunes Store. I am sure none of those 1D10T5 have read it at all.

  1. chas_m

    Joined:

    +5

    IHS iSuppli

    is smoking the crack. While I would be the first to say that the Lumia 900 seems like a very nice competitor to the iPhone and Android phones (it's gotten decent enough reviews, and its a genuine alternative rather than a copycat) -- iSuppli is simply not looking at reality here.

    Windows is seen now as "uncool," which is extremely problematic. Windows Phone is coming along okay but is not turning that tide, and Nokia is dead in the water and will be unable to regain share. Everyone knows that iPhone users happily and voluntarily lock themselves into the iPhone eco-system and aren't going anywhere. Android is the poor man's iPhone and also tries to lock you in, so most of those users aren't going anywhere either. That just doesn't leave much room for growth on WinPhone unless it can somehow come up with something that is so amazing it convinces Android users to leave the platform.

  1. philomath777

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +6

    Is Steve Ballmer now

    writing articles? Fiddle-dee, FUDdle-dee, Yawn...

  1. Mr. Strat

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    Well...

    at least someone has a sense of humor.

    Windows Phone 7 has an ugly, dumbed-down interface. For a device that people use all the time, they'll get tired of it real quickly.

  1. rtbarry

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    LOL

    how much did that "optimistic estimate" cost redmond to buy?

  1. benjitek

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    Uh huh

    How embarrassing for iSuppli ;-)

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