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Analyst: Kindle Fire may have 'stolen' 1-2m iPad sales

updated 11:40 am EST, Tue January 3, 2012

Morgan Keenan sees some cannibalization

The Amazon Kindle Fire might have poached one million to two million iPad 2 sales during the holidays, Morgan Keegan analyst Travis McCourt argued. He lowered his expectations for Apple's tablet shipments from 16 million to 13 million on the assumption that Amazon's $199 tablet was drawing away the more cost-conscious buyers. McCourt based it in part on Amazon's own claims, which he saw as leading to between four million and five million Kindle Fires trading hands.

Amazon is so far the only Android tablet designer known to have mainstream success, and its growth has mostly been credited to a combination of the price and tight integration into the Amazon book and video ecosystems. Some concern exists as to whether or not Amazon can sustain this as cheaper tablets come into the equation. Speculation that the iPad 2 may drop to $399 or even $299 once the iPad 3 arrives has raised the possibility that customers might skip the Kindle Fire entirely if they know they can get a faster, full-featured tablet for a little more.

Conservatism also ran through McCourt's Mac estimates, which dipped slightly from 4.9 million to 4.8 million. Typically, Apple ships some of its highest Mac numbers in the fall, and the consensus so far is for over five million.

iPhone shipments would go up from an earlier 27 million prediction to 29 million. Some analysts have predicted over 30 million.

by MacNN Staff



  1. Sukoshi

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Anal list

    I want a job where I just guess and make sh¡t up, get the world to pay attention to what I say, and get paid for it.

  1. Athens

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Flawed Thinking

    This is flawed thinking, I can't believe these people get paid money. Those that buy the Kindle Fire would never have bought a iPad. So iPad sales are thus not affected. The same number of iPads or more would have been sold so lowering the expectations is flawed. The only way this kind of thinking would be valid is if the world only had 10 million people on the planet. With 6 Billion people, a few million buying Kindles isnt going to affect the iPad sales numbers. If they where going to buy a iPad they would have. Don't count those Kindle buyers as potential iPad buyers. I doubt any more then a couple hundred thousand of them considered the iPad before the kindle.

  1. dliup

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Translation: 1 to 2 million received Amazon's coal substitute.

  1. Paul Huang

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Too much 5 H 1 T .

    Many of them have bought and returned the Kindle Fire, but is afraid...very release the figure.

  1. Spheric Harlot

    Joined: Dec 1969


    We have no idea how many Fires were sold!

    If 1-2 million Kindle Fire sales may have otherwise gone to the iPad, it would stand to reason that Amazon sold AT LEAST twice that in Kindle Fires: 2-4 million.

    Except all we know is that Amazon only sold 4 million Kindles, TOTAL, across all versions.

    This is dangerously close to claiming that EVERYbody who bought a Kindle Fire would have actually bought an iPad instead, which is dangerously close to being obviously complete bullshit.

    I'd like to see sales numbers for the Fire, rather than some bogus fantasizing from some "analyst".

  1. chippie

    Joined: Dec 1969


    You Fanbois Accept Analyst Numbers For Apple Produ

    because apple never confirms or denies these numbers and they do not include them in their quarterly reports. Any numbers you work with are therefore estimates! People can only know the experience that a device offers by spending a lot of time with the device. If you don't own an ipad or Kindle Fire then you don't know the experience. One may be faster at some task than the other but that doesn't make the other useless. And if either was perfect, it wouldn't need upgrades.

  1. Lifeisabeach

    Joined: Dec 1969


    He may be right.

    I doubt that all these people who bought Kindles would have bought an iPad, but doubtlessly some would have at some point. What I do know is that at least 3 people I know at work bought/received Kindle Fire for Christmas, as have a few family members, and they all like it. And some of them also own and love their iPhones, so it's not like they are anti-Apple. It actually performs better than I would have expected and to be perfectly honest, I like the size better than my iPad. At the price point and increased portability, it is hard to deny the appeal.

  1. jrflorance

    Joined: Dec 1969


    We bought a Kindle Fire

    for my nine year-old daughter. We have two iPads and have no intention of buying another, but got the Fire to upgrade her old Kindle. I like the Fire and it was much better than I expected. It's perfect for a child who doesn't need a lot of features and is a voracious reader. We considered giving her one of the iPads, but she didn't need it and it wouldn't be just hers like the Fire. While I don't doubt some would choose the Fire over the iPad, after having used both, I would say they serve two different markets. It's closer to a poor man's iPod Touch with a bigger screen and no camera.

  1. SockRolid

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Return the Fire, get an iPad

    I'd bet a dollar that hundreds of thousands of people who were gifted a Kindle Fire are thinking "Yeah, the reviews were right. The iPad I tried at the Apple Store is way better. I'm getting an iPad next."

    Amazon has inadvertently shipped a sales tool for iPad in the form of Kindle Fire. People who received one as a gift can use it as a $200 discount coupon toward their first iPad purchase, thanks to Amazon's great return policy.

  1. facebook_Jasen

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Jan 2012


    Stolen Sales

    You know Hyundai just stole 10-15million sales for Lexus.... completely different price point and target market.. The fire is straight out an underpowered laggy piece of sh*t that is an e-com platform for Amazon.. that is it. After you pull your hair out from the "custom" android shell's recently updated and still a lousy experience.. you would wish you could pawn the b*tch and buy an iPad... you just don't have the other 3 C-notes and you cry yourself to sleep next to your kindle fire.

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