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IDC predicts Android at 44% by 2015, Windows past iPhone

updated 07:05 pm EDT, Thu June 9, 2011

IDC long-term forecast sees Android, WP7 past iOS

IDC in a long-term prediction Thursday expected Android to stay in front in market share over the next four years but also that Windows Phone would claim second place. Google would move from 38.9 percent to 43.8 percent by 2015. Nokia's deal with Microsoft, however, would see all Windows phone platforms grow from just 3.8 percent today to 20.3 percent, just slightly under what the outgoing Symbian platform had this year.

The gain would supposedly put Windows Phone past the iPhone. Apple was holding 18.2 percent of the market today and, while it would keep third place, would drop to 16.9 percent in the future. RIM would stay alive in the market and drop less than a point to 13.4 percent.

Such predictions are typically risky and make certain assumptions about competitors both staying in the market and not launching any radical revisions that change the dynamic. Predictions before February of this year didn't anticipate Microsoft's Nokia deal at all. Nokia itself has also had to substantially lower its expectations and is widely expected to bleed total market share before it has a chance to come back.

In the short term, IDC expected the smartphone market to explode this year, growing 55 percent versus 2010 and reaching 472 million phones. The number was expected to double again, but only by 2015. Senior researcher Kevin Restivo argued that the "floodgates are open wide" and that much of the growth was in Asia-Pacific or Latin America, where many are using smartphones for the first time and can depend on it even more for banking and shopping.

by MacNN Staff



  1. joecab

    Joined: Dec 1969


    oh really?

    Did I miss the related stories about how so-called "analysts" are using more recreational drugs? :P

    I don't bother with most mainstream analysts anymore. But the day someone with a proven track record like asymco's Horace Dediu's makes a similar statement, THEN I'll believe it.

  1. Bobfozz

    Joined: Dec 1969



    These guys are sad and not to be trusted.

    Did the electronics' industry predict the Japanese tsunami?

    Do they know if North and South Korea will merge?

    Were they predicting 9/11?

    It only takes ONE "mistake" to change EVERYTHING. In every way!

    Who else might MERGE? What if some other phone company merged with Apple? It cracks me up that they make WEAK statements about "this doesn't include the fact that everything may change." I think we should ASSUME "change."

    Their analysis is useless. If they were this good, big bucks companys would beat a path to their door.

  1. slapppy

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I predict...

    that these predictions are going to be wrong!

  1. glideslope

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Be Careful

    Do not underestimate the combination of Nokia and Microsoft. I actually like Win7 Mobile. MUCH more than Android.

  1. azakel

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Bad assessment

    They said that they placed Windows on second place because of the deal with nokia, so they are stipulating that every person who owns a nokia right now (mostly third world countries and even there people are starting to buy something else) will buy a windows phone.

    And if i'm right then they shouldn't have publicized their report and keep their mouths shut, because if we go by the end user experience then there's just no way that current versions of windows phone out due the iOS 4 (no, not comparing it to 5, since there's just no comparison there).

  1. redcapzero

    Joined: Dec 1969



    just saw a piglett try to lanch itself;
    BLT anyone...

    Comment buried. Show
  1. facebook_Clarence

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Jun 2011



    Are they factoring in whether or not Steve Jobs gets more livers?


    WinPhone is better than iOS4 right now, but with the coming update it'll surpass iOS5 by about a generation. Android, of course, has already evolved to somewhere around an iOS7 or 8 equivalent.

  1. philomath777

    Joined: Dec 1969


    These are the same guys

    ...that predicted the iPad would be a flop. LOL.

  1. global.philosopher

    Joined: Dec 1969


    So WinPhone is btter now...

    but they have such little market share. Then by this summation, if they are better than iOS in th future then they will still have low market share.

  1. global.philosopher

    Joined: Dec 1969


    "Android, of course, has already evolved to somewh

    God I hope not...otherwise I aint ever gonna get a future iPhone.

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