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Analyst: iPad share looking up in spite of tablet industry

updated 01:30 pm EDT, Fri May 13, 2011

Android tablets not expected to live up to hopes

A hardware analyst with Goldman Sachs, Bill Shope, has lowered his overall forecasts for the tablet industry. In 2011 total unit shipments are now expected to reach just 57.7 million, as compared with an earlier prediction of 60.1 million. For 2012 the estimate shift is slightly smaller, down 2 million units to 78 million. The problem lies with Android tablets, which aren't expected to sell as well, according to Shope.

The main beneficiary of the situation may be Apple. Shope is raising his estimates for iPad marketshare in 2011, pushing them from 64 to 66.4 percent. Looking ahead to 2012 Apple's share has only been adjusted slightly, from 65 percent to 66.6, reflecting industry predictions.

iPad rivals such as the Motorola Xoom and the RIM PlayBook have failed to catch fire so far. While varying between devices, some problems have included sub-par features, inadequate app libraries and high prices. In the case of ASUS' Eee Pad Transformer, the major obstacle has been low production.

by MacNN Staff



  1. SockRolid

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Oh, they've caught fire all right.

    Re: "iPad rivals such as the Motorola Xoom and the RIM PlayBook have failed to catch fire so far."

    I disagree. I think they crashed and burned.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Joined: Dec 1969


    B&N Color Nook should provide the clues

    Analysts are still living in their dream world where tablets like the B&N Color Nook - are "ereaders"

    If it plays angry birds, has a native email client, has an app store, is shaped like a tablet, walks like a tablet and quacks like a tablet - guess what - it's a tablet.

    And you haven't seen anything yet - Amazon's tablet will outsell the B&N Color Nook - the two combined will easily outsell the iPad in the U.S. by 2012. Analysts get paid to state the past tense and pretend that's what is going to happen in the future. They can blather on, but it doesn't change anything.

    The Galaxy Tab was running the phone OS. The Xoom is more expensive than the iPad - that's a strange place to be. Android manufacturers released one failed business model after the next - because they wanted to experiment. Fine, but this 'second cell contract' model is a failure - using Android phone OS - failure.

    What is a wild success is B&N Color Nook - and we'll see more of that with Amazon, and Google's own Nexus tablet.

    Look for 5 million Android Tablets to be sold in the U.S. during the holiday season.

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