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Gartner sees Android at 49% smartphone share by 2015

updated 07:45 am EDT, Thu April 7, 2011

Gartner sees Android getting 49pc share by 2015

Gartner on Thursday chipped in a long-term prediction of its own for smartphone share that gave Android nearly half of the market. It expected Google to jump to 38.5 percent of the market this year to reach 48.8 percent in 2015, or 539.3 million phones. The company would be riding the back of an open OS wave where the devices were "democratized" and would cost $300 or less off-contract, principal analyst Roberta Cozza said.

Unusually, its definition of an open OS included any one where a developer could write a native app, rather than posting source code or allowing any hardware manufacturer to use it. The figure as a result included closed-source platforms like BlackBerry and iOS.

The study contrasted sharply with ABI's data and saw the iPhone gradually losing share. It would spike up to 19.4 percent share this year by adding carriers before gradually sinking to 17.2 percent in 2015. Gartner presumed that Apple would be more interested in keeping its profit margins and would be willing to sacrifice some market share to make that happen.

Microsoft might have the most to gain, but at a cost, the analysts said. Windows Phone would help it leap from 5.6 percent share this year to 19.5 percent in 2015, but much of that would come at the expense of Symbian through the deal with Nokia. Symbian would collapse from 19.2 percent to just a tenth of a point four years from now.

RIM would stand to lose the most. Along with dropping to 13.4 percent share in 2011, its switch to the PlayBook's QNX-based OS for BlackBerry 7 wouldn't be enough to stop a gradual decline to 11.1 percent share, even as its phone shipments went up.

Gartner added that it saw the rise of tablets being "more as a driver than an inhibitor" for devices since users often wanted to buy the same OS for their tablet as on their phone. The claim, however, would at least temporarily favor Apple. It may have shipped 2.4 million iPad 2s just in March where Motorola, the only OEM with a shipping Android 3.0 device, may have moved just 100,000 Xooms in a roughly comparable period.

by MacNN Staff



  1. msquared70

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Market Share vs. Making Money

    I know I'll be accused of being an Apple Fanboy... whatever. I happen to think Android phones are finally to the point that I would consider the platform to be a viable choice. The phones they're coming out with are getting nicer by the day, however...

    Is it me or is the smart phone market looking a lot like the PC market? Apple releases higher build quality devices that are more stable and "just work" like Macs and Android manufactures are building low cost (race to the bottom) low profit margin devices just to compete and expand market share. .. $300 PC's anyone??

    From reviews I've read the build quality of these phones vary widely from manufacturer to manufacturer... I just know I've dropped my iphone more times than I can count. yes with a decent case but it just keeps on ticking.

    And we have the same arguments... iphones are more expensive and IOS is a closed-system etc....

    Yes, Android will have a higher market share.. they are cheaper, and available on more carriers. Thats fine, but in the end they will never be as good as an iphone- only a poor imitation like Windows on PC's have always been.

    Even if you hate Apple.. imagine where the smartphone market would be without the iphone. It would be stagnate and blackberries would still be the smartest smart phone around..cringe.

  1. TomSawyer

    Joined: Dec 1969


    At a minimum

    their estimates for Windows Phone are WILDLY optimistic.

  1. bonaccij

    Joined: Dec 1969


    People have to stop

    Every time I see one of these reports I just have to ignore it. It never compares Android to iOS - it compares Android (all flavors, including tablets) to iPhone sales. It is RIDICULOUS. Somebody report on total share of iOS vs total share of Android... then let's talk about how Android is "going to have 48% of the market"!

  1. prl99

    Joined: Dec 1969


    still has Microsoft gaining

    This is the same as the other stupid one that had Microsoft converting all Symbian phones to its own failed mobile OS. Why do way too many analysts insist that Microsoft will succeed when all they do is fail? How many tries are they going to give them before they accept the fact that Microsoft does not have the technology or ideas to succeed in this market. All they can do is try and take over Nokia's world, which is failing itself. That market is for non-smartphones so if Microsoft wants to be in the non-smartphone market, fine, there will always be people who want a simple, no frills phone, but it doesn't have to run Windows mobile on it to function.

    As for the stereotypical slam about Apple only wanting profit margins and nothing else, grow up Gartner and either open your eyes or get a new job. Apple owns the tablet market because they figured out how to do it right. They will continue to own a significant portion of the smartphone market for the same reason. Android phones will never have a consistent implementation because the phone manufacturers and cell companies will try to make them "work better" by adding their own garbage to them instead of making them function better for the customer.

  1. prl99

    Joined: Dec 1969


    One more thing

    "democratized"? What is Gartner trying to say? I see the current push for supposedly open software to be similar to the build up then collapse. Android doesn't cost any money to install, right? Google doesn't get any money from Android installations, right? The only "product" Google sells is advertising, right? Apple sells viable products, not advertising. The business was a bunch of vaporware supported by advertising and ??? There wasn't anything that was sold. When investors finally realized this, that market collapsed. Apple survived because it had a tangible product. If Google's only real source of income is advertising and selling access to web-based business products, does it really have the long-term strength to compete in a market where you have to build and sell a product? Microsoft did it for a long time but their is a crack in their wall and it's getting bigger. The vast majority of Microsoft's installed base is in enterprise and the government, not in the consumer market. The phone market is owned by consumers, so using the Microsoft model isn't going to work in the long-term and Google should be smart enough to see that but obviously Gartner isn't because it's owned by the enterprise and government market.

  1. IxOsX

    Joined: Dec 1969



    This study of tendencies, is only valid, if the market stays similar, without innovations that change that tendencies. This is just an analysis study tendency.

    In this variables there is one thing called Apple, that have the tendency to innovate, and by doing it, changes the chess board in is favor.

    What is not explained here, is the profits growth tendency. Apple could have less number of products in the market, but have more profit. And Microsoft can have more products, and no profit at all, because of several variables.

    If futurology works, I was already rich ... :-)

  1. freddymac

    Joined: Dec 1969



    What's it now for Android phones? Buy one get 4 free!!!!!!!!!!!
    Who cares?????

  1. TomMcIn

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Gartner's table is based on units sold not dollars profit, the KEY to staying in business. Android based phones seem to be loosing money on every sale, so must be making it up in volume.

    Serious authors have to include profit reports in their estimates. Otherwise they are just filling up the page.

  1. c4rlob

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Gartner fails to mention...

    Gartner fails to mention that by the time 2015 gets here, smartphones running Android will be considered blahphones. By 2015 Apple will be wowing us with something else transformative and some other company CEO that happens to be on the Apple board then will quit and run off to make a copycat of that too. Apple is always setting new bars while everyone else masters the previous bar.

  1. wrenchy

    Joined: Dec 1969


    But.... But.....

    What about Frag-Mhun-Tayyyyy-Shun?? That will surely mark the end of Android.
    And when they release Verizon iPhone, it will crush the Droid where it stands. Sayonara Android!

    Oh wait... These analysts must be on crack because iOS will reign supreme by 2015.

    Well 17% is still better than the OSX desktop share!


    - Sent from my Android Device.

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