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IDC: Android to lead next 4 years, Windows Phone past iPhone

updated 10:35 am EDT, Tue March 29, 2011

IDC guesses Android, Windows Phone leading by 2015

IDC predicted on Tuesday both that Android would keep its lead until 2015 but that Windows Phone would overtake the iPhone for second place. Android would take 39.5 percent this year but gain only slightly to hit 45.4 percent four years later. Nokia's Windows Phone switch would end up reversing its situation and Symbian's predicted 20.9 percent share in 2011 over to Windows Phone by 2015.

The iPhone would pass the BlackBerry this year, at 15.7 percent versus 14.9 percent, but Apple would see its market share drop along with RIM's to 15.3 percent and 13.7 percent each. The swap would all but void Symbian's share and leave it with 0.2 percent by the end.

IDC hasn't had an ideal track record of predicting market share and notably in January last year presumed that Symbian would last at least until 2013, even after it had been demonstrated losing share rapidly and Nokia confirmed it later. The prediction also assumed that Nokia will keep its market share in the Windows Phone transition despite its actual success for carriers being in doubt.






by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. tsmelker

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +33

    Riiiiiiight...

    And both Hewlett-Packard and Commodore will make huge comebacks and produce tablets that will surpass the iPad. Next lame-o prediction?

  1. BMWTwisty

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +20

    uh huh

    and when will this amazing NokiWinPnone, with iPhone-Killer features that everyone will flock to, actually appear on the market?

  1. Foe Hammer

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +17

    Any Bets That Means ...

    ... that whenever it is, that Nokia is going to go with a "Buy One, Get Five Free" offer right out of the gate?

  1. prl99

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +10

    IDC needs to get up to date first

    Check out the IDC page this article links to. When it discusses technologies and sub-technologies it doesn't even list iOS:

    Operating systems and platforms (e.g., BlackBerry OS, Linux, Palm OS, Windows Mobile, and Symbian)

    I know e.g. means for example but how can you not list iOS when describing mobile phone technologies?

    I also didn't see any predictions on the referenced site and the Powerpoint presentation at the bottom came back with a 404 error. Would the author please confirm the referenced website so we can actually see the predictions. Thanks.

  1. michaele

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +12

    IDC is a joke

    Absurd that a company with zero credibility could issue a report that makes their zero credibility look warranted.

  1. freddymac

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +9

    OOOHHHH NOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    Apple is doomed..........................

  1. pairof9s

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +11

    IDC...

    also predicted pigs will fly out of their @sses by 2012.

    /

  1. Tanker10a

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +7

    Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

    Where do they get their information from? Seriously, how do they arrive at these conclusions? Or do they make it up as they go?!

  1. joecab

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +9

    who wants to do some research?

    Anyone wanna find out if IDC had a prediction five years ago about about how well the Zune would do in the marketplace? Now I'm curious about their track record.

  1. slapppy

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +5

    Must be the air

    Perhaps these IDC are smoking sumptin funny over there. LOL

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