updated 10:10 am EST, Mon January 10, 2011
Could account for 8-12M iPhones in 2011
The prospect of a Verizon iPhone will be the "first true test" for Android, argues Kaufman analyst Shaw Wu. While the Android platform is currently selling better than the iPhone, Wu notes that until now, Verizon subscribers have not had much choice beyond Android in terms of smartphones. BlackBerry, Windows, webOS and Nokia phones are described as "weak competition" versus Android.
The analyst points out that Verizon may need the iPhone, as it has lost some share to AT&T during the last two quarters. He in fact argues that Verizon may be willing to pay Apple extra to prevent the device from appearing on T-Mobile or Sprint, at least in the foreseeable future. Apple should nevertheless gain access to a subscriber base of 93 million people.
Wu expects Apple to ship 63 million iPhones in 2011, of which 8 to 12 million could come from Verizon. This assumes an incremental 2 to 3 million per quarter, with some sales taken from AT&T. The change would add roughly $1 to $2 in annual earnings per share.