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iPhone could take 36 percent of 2011 Verizon phone sales

updated 09:55 am EST, Wed December 15, 2010

Assumes AT&T loss, other phones holding ground

The addition of the iPhone to Verizon should increase Apple's total US iPhone sales by about 2.5 million next year, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. The number, considered conservative, assumes two factors. The first is a bleed from AT&T, giving Verizon 9 million iPhones versus AT&T's 11, when Munster estimates that AT&T would sell 17.5 million units without competition.

It also assumes that the iPhone will make up a much small portion of Verizon's sales than AT&T's. The latter sold 5.2 million iPhones in the third quarter of 2010, which Munster believes formed about 80 percent of its smartphone sales in the period. By contrast, the predicted 9 million Verizon iPhones for 2011 would represent only 36 percent of a forecast 25 million smartphones for the carrier.

In the broader picture, Munster suggests that 2011 figures will see AT&T fall from an estimated 34 percent (15.6 million) of global iPhone sales in 2010 to 17 percent. At the same time, the market is expected to grow from 46.3 million to 63 million. Early 2012 calculations give Apple 78.3 million iPhones worldwide, with AT&T and Verizon each selling roughly 14 million, or 18 percent.

Analysts differ considerably on how many iPhones Verizon may be capable of selling. While Barclays' Capital is roughly in agreement with Munster, BMO Capital Markets is assuming 8 million in 2011, and Merrill Lynch is calling for "at least ten million." The launch date of the device could be influential; Stifel Nicolaus' Doug Reid argues that launching in February could add an extra 800,000 units versus starting in March.






by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. iphonerulez

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +4

    Once Verizon customers have

    a chance to get hold of a real iPhone and not a bunch of low-quality pretenders, sales should grow rapidly. I can only imagine how many Verizon Android smartphone users are just about ready to dump their Android devices. At least those that have no reason to tinker with their smartphone's OS. There's be a awful lot of FaceTime sessions going on as iOS devices start of reach critical mass.

  1. climacs

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    some people

    just have an irrational fear and loathing of anything Apple.

    Apple, fairly or not, has an image of being the choice of smug hipsters (pro tip: we're smug because our computers work so dammed well!). Some people are just Ballmer buttboys, especially if their job security relies upon corporate use of Microsuck software. Some people want the ability to deeply customize their smartphone.

    So there's a role for Android as a perfectly decent operating system and as an alternative to iPhone. The two can co-exist side by side. Most, though, would choose iPhone especially if it becomes more affordable. One advantage iPhone has that Droid phones will never have, is Apple's superior knowledge and implementation of features and UI design. Oh, and the kick-butt App Store.

  1. Fast iBook

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Marginalized.

    Once iPhone is on other us carriers, android will be marginalized i'm betting.

    - A

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