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Gartner: iPad to push tablets to 54.8m, threaten netbooks

updated 02:40 pm EDT, Fri October 15, 2010

Gartner says iPad to push tablets to 54.8m in 2011

The iPad will be the primary factor in both high tablet sales this year and three times as many sales next year, Gartner said in a new estimate today. Continuing very strong sales of Apple's tablet would push overall tablet sales to 19.5 million for all of 2010 and 54.8 million in 2011. By 2014, the category could be larger than netbooks with over 208 million units sold.

Almost all of that would be "driven by sales of the iPad," research VP Carolina Milanesi said.

The analyst also put significantly more gravity in concerns of an iPad effect on rivals. She expected that netbooks would now face the "strongest cannibalization threat" over the next few years and saw an inflection point when tablets hit $300, which she thought would happen within two years.

Milanesi further anticipated effects on e-readers, game systems and media players, although she only saw full-size notebooks "marginally" affected. Smartphones might see some damage as it might be difficult to rationalize getting both a high-end smartphone and a small seven-inch tablet, such as the Samsung Galaxy Tab, without seeing significant overlap. Many of those may opt for a simpler smartphone instead.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. iphonerulez

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    I'm starting to get goosebumps about

    how many iPads are being projected to be sold. I simply cannot believe after all those years of Microsoft pushing tablets and yet they never caught on with consumers. Yet, Apple builds their first tablet and it's as though it uncovered a huge group of consumers that were just desperately waiting for a tablet. I find it incredible that something like that could happen without the rest of the computer industry even realizing it. Just last year, it was predicted that the netbook category would be huge by 2013 and yet already netbooks seem to be yesterday's dirty underwear and the tablet is going to be the hot category. I'm not taking any of this as final word, but I'm just saying it's pretty amazing how supposedly calculated predictions can turn sour in such a short amount of time.

    Apple is in the best position ever to keep those tablets flowing with all that reserve cash that can be poured into R&D, marketing, retail, etc. Apple just can't allow to let this chance to change the computer industry slip away.

  1. coffeetime

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    CD-ROM prediction

    The same way how analysts predicted CD-ROM will rule the world but were swallowed by internet plus Flash.

  1. samirsshah

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    Sooner...

    We will not have to wait till 2014 for tablets to kill netbooks. Microsoft and Intel were having crippling limitation on netbooks (e.g maximum 1GB RAM) which is continuing even now. Why not now have enabling limitation (minimum 2GB RAM) to at least delay the tablet onslaught somewhat. Windows 7 is slower than molasses on 1 GB RAM.

  1. ethical_paul

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    Chance to change the computer industry

    > Apple just can't allow to let this chance to change the computer industry slip away.

    Apple already changed the computer industry. Before the Mac, there was DOS. After the Mac, there was a horrible copy of the Mac.

    The only thing Apple missed out on was tons of profits that went instead to the "safe" choice, MS.

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