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Analyst: Amazon to sell 5 million Kindles, fend off iPad

updated 01:30 pm EDT, Wed September 29, 2010

Amazon Kindle to pass 5m this year

Barclays Capital analyst Douglas Anmuth today estimated that Amazon would sell about five million Kindle readers this year. The company should thrive on the combination of the redesign and the lower $139 price. The numbers would more than double over the course of the next two years to reach 11.5 million in 2012.

Anmuth expected the price gap to keep Amazon safe from the effect of the iPad. The new Kindles create a "bifurcated" market where cheap, narrow purpose e-readers occupy the high-end multi-purpose environment, he said. He added that Amazon would nonetheless reap the benefits of work by Apple: as the Kindle app is still one of the most popular titles on the iPad, it still benefits when someone buys the competing tablet. The company could handle as much as 43 percent of the content on tablets, including not only Apple's but RIM's BlackBerry PlayBook.

The researcher warned that it might not be possible to verify Amazon's sales results in the near future. Amazon won't be legally required to disclose Kindle revenue or other details until it accounts for at least 10 percent of total business, but the current estimate wouldn't have it exceed $1.7 billion in 2010, or just five percent. CEO Jeff Bezos has insisted that the company keeps sales figures secret as a "competitive advantage," although it's believed that this has partly been used to mask slow sales until the price cuts.

Apple isn't expected to have any trouble beating Amazon despite the higher price. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has predicted iPad shipments that would at least double Kindle figures, reaching 10.7 million in 2010 and 21 million in 2011.

by MacNN Staff



  1. MyRightEye

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Sold my iPad

    And bought the new $139 Kindle. Got it just yesterday. I must say, I am really impressed. The iPad is great, but I already have an iPhone 4 and a 13" MBP, so why the need for an iPad? Well to read. But the thing is way too big and heavy and hard to read on outside. This Kindle is crazy good.

  1. agengler

    Joined: Dec 1969


    To me it's Apples and Oranges, if you'll pardon th

    I use an iPad for many more things than just reading and with the OS it warrants the difference in price.

    I bought my wife the new Kindle and she loves it. Her comment was that it's not as easy to use as the touch screen (that's how she sees it), but it works perfectly for what she wants, which is reading.

    So it's not an either/or situation. They both act as a reader, but the iPad is soooo much more than that.

    So it's not a fair comparison and the media outlets continue to do it. Go figure. It's like saying the production of Kia's will cut into the sales of Cadillacs.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969



    I won't pardon the expression...

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Re: To me...

    It isn't a bad comparison, because the only comparison being made is by the headline writer ('fend'? Really?).

    As the article states, "Anmuth expected the price gap to keep Amazon safe from the effect of the iPad."

    As in, if the Kindle was $399 or $499 like it was, it's sales would plummet as people just went to the iPad, as so many here had said in the past. So, in effect, being at such a distinctly lower price point keeps its sales from being ravaged by the iPad's superior capabilities.

  1. aristotles

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I gave away my MBP when I bought an iPad

    I did not see a point of having a laptop and tablet. I have an iPhone and an iPad. The iPad is what I use when I'm on a trip somewhere away from home for web browsing and email.

    I could never have justified buying an e-reader since I really don't read much and I would mostly read magazines and stuff like that which you would really want to have a colour device rather than a black and white device like the kindle.

    I found that I was not using my MBP at all after I bought an iMac and I took my iPhone with me on trips. I still found myself wanting a bigger screen for email and reading articles on the road and the iPad fit that need quite nicely.

  1. Geordiekeith

    Joined: Dec 1969


    A Kindle caused me trouble

    Bought a Kindle to read books while I travel, as I use a Lenovo S-10 "Hackintosh" to work/play. Had the Kindle in the side/leg pocket of my "combat-style" travel trousers and ended up arguing with the guy at the airport security gate as I was so sure I had nothing in my pockets.... the Kindle is unnoticeable when travelling. Pehaps iPad users just want or need to be noticed?

  1. Eldernorm

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Just a thought

    Its back to market share again. "The company should thrive on the combination of the redesign and the lower $139 price. The numbers would more than double over the course of the next two years to reach 11.5 million in 2012."

    Yep, I am sure Amazon will make lots of profit selling a device for 140$ vs 400$. Yep, lose money on each item, make it up in volume.. :-)

    Or NOT. Look at cell phones. World wide Apple only sells about 7%. But makes 39% of all the profit made selling cell phones. Yep makes the most profits, sells the least phones... And is still the most popular overall phone.

    Just a thought,

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