iPhone owners to reach 100 million by 2011?
updated 04:40 pm EDT, Thu June 17, 2010
Upgrade demand influential, says analyst
Apple could potentially more than triple 2009 iPhone ownership by the end of 2011, reaching 100 million subscribers, claims Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty. Roughly 30 million subscribers were recorded by the end of last year, and Huberty estimates that Apple will sell at least 42 million more phones by the end of 2010. This assumes a 30 percent upgrade rate; if upgrades reach 50 percent, sales could hit 48 million.
Huberty is calling for at least 9 million iPhone upgrades in 2010, and about 19 million in 2011. Incentive to upgrade is said to be high this year, in part of because of iOS 4, since not all of the firmware's features will work on older iPhones, or in any sense in case of first-generation devices. A large chunk of the people upgrading are expected to be US iPhone 3G owners, many of whose contracts should be ending this year thanks to AT&T's early upgrade program.
Other draws should include the standbys of better hardware, and the App Store, which ties people to Apple devices. Switching away from Apple renders iPhone apps useless, and the App Store continues to have the largest app library for any smartphone. The iPhone is facing competition, however, from Android devices, including the forthcoming Droid X.
Fresh-Faced Recruit
Joined: Aug 2001
Who are they kidding?
How could anyone predict "about 19 million iPhone upgrades in 2011"? Wouldn't that number be depending on the attractiveness of a 2011 iPhone, of which there is suspiciouly little information around as of now?
Typical analyst BS.