Analyst expects sales to be lower

There should be plenty of iPads available in 2010, even if the launch day supply is already exhausted, data from Asian suppliers is said to show. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty notes that the suppliers are now predicting shipments of 8 to 10 million units in 2010, far higher than the 5 million or so called for earlier. Of these 2.5 million are expected to ship by the end of May, several times more than the 750,000 suggested by Huberty's earlier estimates.

For every 1 million iPads shipped, says Huberty, Apple should be able to add about 25 cents to EPS. The analyst is however holding to a forecast of about 6 million in actual sales during 2010, which could leave plenty of tablets in stock for replacements, or spillover into 2011. These would likely be made to evaporate ahead of the next iPad launch, which should happen roughly a year from now given Apple's preference for annual cycles.

Huberty remarks that some investors are currently critical of the iPad, as there is no one killer app that demands the device. Apple is actually going after the sub-$800 notebook market, the analyst contends, which currently represents 30 million systems in the US and 120 million worldwide. People will ultimately come to the iPad because of a combination of books, magazines, videos and optimized apps, she concludes.

by MacNN Staff