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Analyst: iPad to beat Kindle's all-time sales in 3 months

updated 03:40 pm EST, Tue March 9, 2010

iPad could outsell Kindle in three months

Apple could have the bestselling e-book reader of all time in just three months on the market, according to an estimate from FBR Capital analyst Craig Berger. He believes that talk of hardware-related delays from competing analyst groups were just "false alarms" and that that Apple is purportedly set to ship 5 million iPads just in the first half of 2010. At this rate, the tablet would push past Amazon's unofficial lifetime record of 3 million Kindles in just the three-month span between early April and the end of June.

The prediction is aggressive, as earlier researchers have frequently had Apple shipping just a few hundred thousand units in March and one million for all of April. Apple has officially pushed the international launch of the iPad to late April and hinted it would need more stock to cover the initial launch outside of the US. Regardless of actual supplies, Berger cautioned that moment-to-moment shipping quantities don't necessarily translate to actual sales as they can vary based on expanding or trimming inventory, expected seasonal patterns in sales, and other factors that companies have to predict in advance.

If accurate, the estimate would be a blow to competing e-reader makers as a whole. Many, such as Barnes & Noble, have been keen to tout popularity and sellouts but have seldom been willing to provide definitive numbers. Concerns over competitors exploiting the data have often been a major factor, but critics have noted that these devices have often been in low supply from the outset and have faced chronic shortages. Amazon was unable to maintain a reliable supply until last year due to these issues.

Aside from iPad predictions, Berger is also much more optimistic on iPods, expecting Apple to ship 9.3 million of the music players in the quarter ending this month. He has similarly increased estimates on desktops and notebooks to 1 million and 1.7 million each (up from 500,000 and 1 million). He only expects Apple to ship 6 million iPhones but cautions again that this would be an effort to keep inventory in check, not a direct reflection of demand.

by MacNN Staff



  1. joecab

    Joined: Dec 1969


    what can we really call "e-book readers"?

    Can you really label the iPad as an e-book reader? I mean, it certainly does that, but so does the iPhone now. Heck, they'll probably give the iPhone the ability to read Apple's e-books as well. Plus, with a Kindle or Nook, we know that's all people are buying them for so they're a direct line to e-book sales.

    There will be people that have no intention of buying e-books for the iPad, so how many can you really count as e-book readers? I guess we'll have a better idea once we find out exactly how many e-book sales are attributed to the iPad directly.

  1. Peter Bonte

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Some realistic sales estimates, no sarcasm intended.

  1. iphonerulez

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I don't quite see people buying an iPad

    and having no intention of ever using it for an e-Reader. Supposedly the iPad is going to be used as some family device and there would likely be someone in the home that would download books, newspapers and magazines to read. Just the ability to have a whole bunch of classic books to load on the iPad would be quite an attraction. I certainly would think so.

    I see the iPad as a light usage e-Reader device on average. If publishers come out with family reading packages where you can choose a mix of books for a fixed price that could be a very attractive starter package. I'm not a doctor or anything, but I'd love to see an illustrated and interactive medical dictionary for the iPad. Or even some sort of multimedia driven book of automobiles showing basic operation and various highlights of the auto industry. I'm really very excited about what they could do with multimedia in digital books.

  1. slapppy

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Sooo there are at least 3 million in sales for Kindle? Where is the facts or numbers from Amazon? For all we know it could be 1 million or 10 million. Where are the hard numbers from Amazon!

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