iPhone success not immediately tied to Verizon

Good times are ahead for two of Apple's flagship products, claim analysts with Merrill Lynch and UBS. Lynch's Scott Craig argues that investors should not be worried about whether or not a Verizon iPhone will become available later this year. Street consensus points to 33 million iPhone shipments for 2010, a figure which Craig notes is "basically achievable" with or without Verizon.

The more critical timeframe is said to be 2011, when a consensus forecast of 44 million iPhones may be impossible without the help of Verizon, or some other major boost. Alternative drivers could include price cuts, radically new hardware and/or an unexpected explosion of Chinese sales. If Apple were to sign a 2010 pact with Verizon, Craig suggests that as many as 8 million more phones could be sold in 2011.

The analyst has raised his "base case" for next year by 1.5 million units, up to 35 million. The ceiling could go as high as 55 million, however, if Verizon and several other carriers are added. Craig has meanwhile raised his price target for Apple stock to $260, and his 2011 EPS projection from $13.44 to $13.65.

Regarding the iPad, UPS' Maynard Um remarks that just how well it may sell remains in the air. The device lacks Flash, he says, limiting its utility on the web, and it is debatable as to whether the iPad's screen will prove superior to other e-book readers. The tablet's utility will at least evolve over time though, according to Um, just the iPhone. The original iPhone was "just an iPod with phone capabilities," he comments.

by MacNN Staff