Price a global barrier to adoption

The next iPhone launch, likely to happen in June, should see the arrival of of cheaper models, says Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty. While some analysts have suggested that a Verizon iPhone is more likely as a way for Apple to expand its sales, Huberty notes that the cost of the iPhone is an obstacle around the world. Particularly severe in countries like China, it remains a problem even in rich countries such as the US.

Huberty anticipates phones with "both a lower total cost of ownership and new functionality, potentially including gesture-based technology," though which gestures are meant beyond the current ones is unspecified. Prices however could come down in terms of hardware and/or subscription costs, in which case a global marketshare of 15 percent is projected for FY2012, bringing with it a $358 stock price. This would also assume an average carrier subsidy of $200.

Other scenarios call for share prices ranging from $180 to as much as $435, depending on combinations of marketshare, subsidy and carrier distribution. Further aiding could be the iPad, which Huberty expects will ship in quantities of 6 million by the end of the year. General consensus calls for just 3 to 4 million units.

by MacNN Staff