Analyst calls for '75 percent probability'

A "75 percent probability" exists that AT&T will hold onto the American iPhone during 2010, claims Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Chaplin. The odds stem from a lack of "compelling" evidence that AT&T exclusivity ends this year, with an overlapping one-in-four chance that AT&T will bid and win a one-year contract extension. Rumors of a Verizon iPhone have accelerated in recent weeks, but have mostly been tied to a January 27th event which turned out to be the iPad debut.

Only AT&T would gain anything from continued exclusivity, says Chaplin. The iPhone already accounts for 66 percent of AT&T smartphones, meaning there is little room for expansion. Apple could in fact shrink in North American marketshare if it is locked to AT&T, slipping from 26 percent of smartphones in 2009 to 23 percent in 2010. Assuming such projections are accurate, Apple would still sell 13.3 million phones in the region.

A Verizon iPhone is nevertheless expected in 2011. Other analysts have commented that both AT&T and Verizon phones could gain LTE (4G) support at the same time.

by MacNN Staff