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Needham: 2 million iPads in 2010, 6 million in 2011

updated 01:35 pm EST, Wed February 3, 2010

To come at expense of iPod touch?

Apple will likely sell 2 million iPads in FY 2010, with another 6 million coming in 2011, says Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf. The firm has completed its first assessment of the tablet's potential, which is said to founded on several assumptions. Because of a $500 base price, the iPad is expected to attract a "non-trivial" number of the 75 million iPhone and iPod touch owners in existence, as well as more buyers in the form of netbook shoppers, schools and hospitals.

More than half of projected iPad sales may come at the expense of the Touch, Wolf argues. A 9.7-inch screen is said to be a big draw, especially for gamers, and a 16GB iPad is believed to be close enough in value to the price of a 32 or 64GB Touch. There's a "relatively low price barrier" in moving to an iPad, Wolf claims.

The main catalysts for iPad sales are, however, predicted to be different than those for the iPod and iPhone. The iPod first exploded in sales mainly because of Windows support and the iTunes Store, while the iPhone gained ground when third-party apps became available. The iPad's advantage will be video and e-books, Wolf proposes, once the print and video industries develop specialized content. Video sales have traditionally lagged well behind music at the iTunes Store.

Needham is holding to a $235 stock target, with FY10 and FY11 EPS estimates of $12.85 and $15.25.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. mgpalma

    Joined: Dec 1969

    -1

    I don't know

    Personally, I view this as a 'luxury item' and honestly will be surprised at people flocking to it. Where as my iPhone added cool features to a device I *already* carried around, a cell phone, I do not want, or need, to carry around an iPad. $500 is a great price, to be sure, but it is still a lot of money. I have a laptop, a Mac laptop, and really cannot think of why I would want to carry around a device that does not give me access to Mac apps. To me a Mac netbook type product would have been much more useful. When Steve Jobs dissed the netbook as not being a great product, he forgot one thing, it *does* run Windows apps. Maybe nothing high-horse powered, but who is going to be using Photoshop on a 10" screen anyways?

    The iPad does not run Mac apps. And THAT is the deal killer for me.

    But hey, what do I know, obviously there research has indicated otherwise.

    Just my .02

  1. iphonerulez

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +4

    I drink the Apple Kool-Aid so I see

    the iPad becoming a must-have device for 2010. I think 2 million iPads for 2010 is a gross under-estimation. Yes, tech people say that the iPad is nothing to get excited about and some even say it's even worse, but non-tech consumers will think otherwise. Of course, wanting one and buying one are two different things. I think that once people see others using them, they'll get one for their families. Kids will certainly want them.

    If Amazon can sell close to 2 million Kindles in a year (rumored number), Apple can easily double those sales with the iPad by using its retail stores. It's been claimed there is high demand in Europe already. With consumers flocking to the Apple retail stores and having a chance to play with an iPad, I know they're going to want one if they like the iPhone and iPod Touch. I'm in the NYC metro area and I'm willing to bet there will be lines of people waiting to get one since Apple products are desirable in the Big Apple.

    If there isn't any demand for tablets, then why are so many companies coming out with them? There must have been some research done for demand. I'll chalk my enthusiasm up to Apple fanboy/investor delusions, but the media is going to keep feeding the iPad flame and by the time it goes on sale, there will definitely be a lot of curiosity and probably greater demand. I've got a lot of cash riding on that Apple can excite consumers with the iPad.

  1. dpicardi

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +7

    If they intro on time...I expect them to

    double Needhams #.

    When the camera is installed in will quadruple the number. And eventually it will replace most personal uselaptops which are primarily used for surfing, email and photos. All of which this will be wonderfully suited.

  1. slider

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +5

    I think they are wrong

    Is the iPad for everyone? Nope.

    Of course there are some people that want a full OS, but I think the majority of them would choice a laptop over a tablet most of the time - look at the Windows tablet devices - you couldn't have a clear indication than that about what the market for such a device is.

    This is not a phone - seriously, why are you (generalization) comparing it to one.

    I think Apple is dead on regarding netbooks - it's really just a really cheap PC. I believe when the Chrome OS comes out you'll see a decline in Windows OS netbooks. Though it's likely we'll see a Chrome OS variant for a tablet device.

    I have no idea how many iPads will be sold in 2010, but I really think it'll be much more than 2 million.

    There's still a couple of months to go, but I believe I'll be purchasing one sooner than later. My thinking right now is the 32GB w/o the 3G. I have my iPhone with all my music on it so I don't see a need to load it on my iPad. I imagine that in instances were I don't have WiFi access, I probably wouldn't be using my iPad anyways - my iPhone would most likely be the more appropriate device.

  1. OkieDoc

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    It's something inbetween

    I have an iPhone, MacBook Pro and an iMac, and I'll get an iPad, especially at a buy-in of $500

    I'm a physician, and I can tell you that I'm REALLY looking forward to being able to run apps on the larger screen. I use multiple iPhone/iPod Touch apps on a daily basis, and using them on a tiny screen can be tough.

    The availability of the extra screen real estate can make all sorts of cool applications possible.

    I can't stand working with a laptop in an exam room, fooling with a trackpad or a mouse. But I can easily see myself using the touch UI to run applications and enter data. I can access X-rays already through my iPhone using OsiriX. I bet it will be AWESOME on the iPad, if the developers modify their iPhone app appropriately.

  1. eaglemac

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    Apple will sell in 2010 as many iPads as they prod

    Every second iphone users with whom I speak plans to buy an iPad during 2010. The business will be extremely huge for Apple. Nobody in my neighborhood looks at any other device then the iPad.

    Take it from this side - Universities like the University of Washington they got already Apps on the iPhone with drives more than 40'000 Students to buy one. Think of the possibilities for presentation (see the corresponding youtube videos) as well as the easy access of study materials. To the right of their notebook, on which they write their work, they will have an iPad, in order to access all the necessary documents. Just one case.

    Therefore, my prediction - Apple's new iPad will be during the whole year on the short list, since the whole production line has first to be raised.

    So for me it's 4 million iPads in 2010, 12 million in 2011 - you bet?

  1. rtamesis

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    We're buying two iPads

    My wife and I will each have our own iPad. Both of us like to read ebooks on our iPhones, and having a larger screen that we can carry around the house will make it much more pleasurable to read and surf the net while listening to our music.

  1. Peter Harrison

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    It's not for everyone

    ...but it does everything I want it to. I'm getting one, and I'm very impressed with it. Every objection I've seen doesn't concern me. I don't need a camera, and I don't want OSX on a 10" multitouch screen. Could be more pleased with the iPad. That doesn't mean everyone should go and get one, it means I should!

  1. ggirton

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    What about other tablets?

    The size of the second year depends on how good the other tablet entries are. Since Google's Nexus -- which will run on Verizon -- has flash, it won't have the playback restrictions that Apple has introduced. And snce it's on Verizon it will be WILDLY popular from the get-go. And the same will be true of the scaled up version.

    Also, in 2011 the pad will have to compete against color E-Ink and touch on the Kindle.

    I'm thinking growth for the iPad, but I would estimate more conservatively for the second year. The first year, though, will be bigger than most of the estimates here. People obviously want it, and there really isn't anything to compare it to, Apples to Apples, if you will.

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