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Analyst says iPad could hit 10 million units in 2011

updated 11:10 am EST, Thu January 28, 2010

Device unusually cheap, awaiting real potential

Several financial analysts have issued new comments following Apple's debut of the iPad. A recurring theme is that the tablet is unexpectedly cheap, with a base price of $499 for a 16GB, Wi-Fi-only model. Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros. points out that the iPad touchscreen alone may cost Apple about $100, meaning that the company may be "convincing suppliers to invest in new markets," consequentially pushing down component prices.

While analysts with Kaufman, Needham and UBS all observe that the iPad has great potential, Needham's Charlie Wolf cautions that the device is "not yet a revolutionary product." It is really waiting, he suggests, for ideal third-party content, which will include books and customized iPad apps. Wu adds that the Wi-Fi models are likely to sell better, mainly because of cost, since they do not require a data plan and are less expensive on their own. 3G speeds, moreover, are said to be inadequate next to conventional broadband.

Wolf proposes that some 4 million iPads could be sold in the first year of availability, whereas Wu cites supply chain checks that point to production of about 5 million units. Apple may be ready to build as many as 10 million tablets next year, although the first generation of iPads will not be available until April 2010.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    -6

    or

    Maybe apple is trying to push into the market by not demanding 30% margins on this thing.

    Or perhaps they'll sell it at cost or a loss so they can boost market share even faster.

  1. jhawk95

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +4

    In Other News.......

    Angelenos are more likely to eat at McDonald's than at Spago. This might be attributed to the fact that the average meal at McDonalds is $5.00 whilst a meal at Spago is about $150 a person.


    Do these guys really get paid for this c*** they say?

    "Wu adds that the Wi-Fi models are likely to sell better, mainly because of cost, since they do not require a data plan and are less expensive on their own."





  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    5 million seems low

    @jhawk95 - in the Apple universe, sometimes the most expensive models are the most popular. It's happened many times, even in recent history. Remember the 4gb and 8gb original iPhone?

    4gb's were cheaper and ultimately didn't sell that well, compared to the 8gb.

    So predicting the cheaper model sells better...time will tell if he's correct, its not a slam dunk especially because the cheapest model has a scant 16gb of drive space.

    5 million only in 2010? Those aren't numbers that 'save the free press for democracy'.

    I have to think Apple has some plans to crank up production, should the demand warrant it.

    Sure, I'm talking about contingency plans, because thats probably the way they really think -there is no hard number, but I'd say they need to do at least 5 - 10 million this year, and 20 million or more next year.

    Otherwise its not going to have the society-changing impact that Apple is probably hoping for.

    I'm impressed with the $499 price point, but they need a $299 model too. I think in a year or so, we'll see prices coming down.



  1. Peter Bonte

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    5 million is low

    Apple will sell as much as they can produce, expect big shortages the complete first year of availability. Its a very affordable computer replacement for the second and third computer in the house for the wife, kids and grandma.

  1. starwarrior

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    Over 10 Million in 2010

    (If they can build them) Every current iTouch and iPhone user has their finger on the button to purchase an iPad. The pundits must be low paid. If I were one I would have every PC and Mac derivative at my fingertips. Some on CNBC actually brag that they do not own a Mac or iPhone. Yet they blather on and on. So pathetic.

  1. Constable Odo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    I'm not saying the iPad isn't good, but...

    who is going to be buying all these tablets? I swear, a month or so ago, analysts were saying that there is absolutely no consumer market for tablets. From zero to ten million is an awfully large miscalculation on somebody's part. I mean, there must be consumers that are just going to pop out of the woodwork after never buying a Microsoft tablet for all those years. I can see 5 million buying because I figure Apple can push more iPads than Amazon can Kindles, but even I can't really see what part of the consumer population would buy one. Sure, I will, but I'm a diehard Apple fan and so will other diehard Apple fans that just want one. I know there must be at least five million diehard Apple fans. But 10 million tells me there must be some part of the population I'm unaware of that would have a need for a tablet. I'm wondering if they would already have a computer or be new people that stayed away from computers because they were too hard to use. I can't wait to find out if Apple succeeds in jumpstarting a whole new category of buyers. That would really be something.

  1. facebook_Romain

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Feb 2010

    -1

    60% of iPhone users will buy an iPad

    More iPhone users plan to buy an iPad than what people think.
    More details on http://blog.haveasec.com

  1. facebook_Alok

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Feb 2010

    0

    What does 10 million iPads mean for Apple stock pr

    According to Trefis.com, 10 million ipads could move Apple's stock price $20/share. You can overlay your assumptions to see what effect it would have. If you're an AAPL investor, don't get carried away with the hype, check the stock price implications of expectations with a model:

    http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=AAPL.trefis&hk=34d9a2442672ac24aeb993fb6efd3d47b4603e77&from=share

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