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IDC: Android to overtake iPhone, BlackBerry by 2013

updated 10:55 am EST, Mon January 25, 2010

Android to pass iPhone, Win Mobile in 3 years

Android will rise to be the second most used mobile OS in the world by 2013, according to a new IDC estimate. Analysts still expect Symbian to hold on to its lead but that Google's OS will have grown 100 times larger since starting off in 2008, reaching 68 million phones three years from today. The prediction doesn't immediately gauge the position of BlackBerry, iPhone or Windows Mobile but expects all three to be eclipsed.

The upset would come about as a virtue of the Android ecosystem. As more companies start making Android phones, the platform should become the default choice for those who aren't making their own operating systems and will replace both Linux and Windows Mobile in these areas. Apple and RIM are the only manufacturers for their platforms and limit their exposure as a result.

Nokia's security, meanwhile, should come from its established dominance in areas outside of North America. Linux and webOS are the only major platforms expected to struggle, as the former will likely lose out to Android while webOS' relatively limited availability could hurt, even as it grows overall.

Android remained small for most of its first year but has rapidly grown through late 2009 and early 2010 as companies like Acer, Dell, LG, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson have all launched their own phones using the software. In some cases, companies have either started off using Android for their first smartphones or even replaced some if not all of their Linux and Windows Mobile devices with the more modern, open OS.

by MacNN Staff



  1. Bearcat

    Joined: Dec 1969


    yeah yeah yeah

    Didn't someone else say that Android was going to overtake the iPhone and Blackberry in 2012 about a month ago? These analysts need to get their stories straight.

  1. rjdude

    Joined: Dec 1969


    They may take...

    Windows' mobile OS spot, but the real market share leader will be the one that has the most in market margin share.


    Joined: Dec 1969


    Who cares?

    Who really cares what the analysts think? Not me.

    Here is my prediction. I have no idea what will happen in 2013. (And neither does IDC)

    The phone or smartphone will be redefined several times by then and who knows what form factor will come into play. For all you know by then we will be implanting little chips in our ears and just communicating via thought.

  1. Xinnix

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I wonder?

    I wonder what Nastradamus would predict?
    I'd believe him before I would buy into anything these so called Analysts have to say!

  1. dynsight

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Cannot Predict

    I would be willing to bet that this "analyst" is some bumpkin who just bough his or her first computer. What are his credentials? Or worse, first year marketing student at some county community college who just learned stats.

    No one with any business background can make accurate predictions. Six months before the iPhone came out, I am sure everyone had a rosy future for Blackberry. Before that, Palm would be around forever...

    Apple has no long term guarantee for success, but their continued dominance in music speaks well for them... but they will eventually fall (as did Sony before them).

    Fact is, phones are still a developing market, and by 2013 Yahoo may introduce a wearable phone that also cooks breakfast.

    Now, I am sure that tomorrow will have an article about Yahoo introducing a new phone in 2012 that is wearable and cooks your breakfast.

  1. imactheknife

    Joined: Dec 1969



    didn't one of these k***'s say that the Palm Pre was going to overtake the iphone this year...good luck with that bud.....try a different day job or trade in your crystal ball for an iphone....

  1. macnews

    Joined: Dec 1969


    this is TRUE!

    This is true and I can't believe you all can't see it! Andriod will be the number one mobile OS in 2013......

    if Apple doesn't do a thing with the iPhone until then.

  1. mjtomlin

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Android is Linux

    Which means Linux will be even larger than Android as there are several other Linux distributions available for mobiles. So this "analysis" is complete c***.

    This goes to show that a name alone does not make an "ecosystem". Since carriers and hardware manufacturers are free to modify the OS any way they desire, there are/will be incompatible Android-based phones.

  1. Foe Hammer

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Watch Where You Walk ...

    ... or you'll step in all the big piles of FUD.

    These anal-cysts seem to think if they say something enough times it will become true. They just can't stand once beleagured Apple being the market leader in anything, let alone setting the standard for innovation and usability.

  1. iphonerulez

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Does it really matter that Android overtakes

    OSX mobile in market share? What's important is that Apple keeps it's ecosystem strong and profit margins high. Being the market leader and making little money from it is a waste of time and energy. If Apple ends up with 25% to 30% global smart phone market share and Android has 35%, so what. Google has to continue to improve Android even if it is free and Google needs to get ad revenue from the platform. Maybe Google won't control mobile ad revenue and Apple will benefit the most then what's the point of Google even continuing development of Android. It might just let it go and release it to the open source community to develop.

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