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AAPL Stock: 502.6 ( + 9.18 )

Analysts change up estimates ahead of Q1 results, tablet

updated 02:00 pm EST, Fri January 22, 2010

Apple stock down 5 percent in three days


Several market firms have published new memos on Apple today, which represents the last full weekday before Apple will announce its first-quarter financial results. The most radical note appears to have come from Deutsche Bank, which has removed Apple from its short-term Buy list. BMO Capital by contrast has raised its price target from $245 to $250, repeating an Outperform rating.

The firm's non-GAAP FY 2010 EPS estimate has been raised from $10.58 to $11.65, while the GAAP figure is up from $7.47 to $7.88. For 2011, non-GAAP EPS numbers have been raised from $10.27 to $12.05. Regarding a tablet, BMO's Keith Bachman suggests that it may add 60 to 80 cents of EPS in CY 2010, assuming 4 million in sales, a $600 pricetag and a 40 percent gross margin.

Hudson Square Research writes that Q1 2010 results should exceed $11.47 billion in sales, with a GAAP EPS of $1.94. The firm is calling for a more pessimistic take on iPhone shipments than Street consensus, using 7.5 million units instead of 9 million. Regardless it is holding onto a Buy rating, and a $250 price target.

RBC Capital's Q1 forecast is $12.2 billion in revenue with a $2.14 GAAP EPS, or $3.44 in non-GAAP terms. Shipments are expected to include 3 million Macs and 9 million iPhones. A 2010 GAAP EPS estimate has been raised from $7.57 to $7.97, and in 2011 Apple is now predicted to generate $9.90, rather than $8.67. RBC is holding onto an Outperform rating and a $275 price target.

Apple stock has slid roughly 5 percent in value during the past three days. The exact reasons are unknown, but are likely connected to action and/or nervousness ahead of the Q1 results call, as well as Apple's upcoming tablet reveal. The stock market as a whole has also suffered in some sectors.


by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. VinitaBoy

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2001

    +3

    Deutsche Bank "fact"

    "The most radical note appears to have come from Deutsche Bank, which has removed Apple from its short-term Buy list."

    True . . . but not because they WANTED to! The firm has internal controls that require it to remove a stock from a short-term buy list 6 months after it was added. Lo and behold, Apple was added on July 22, 2009, exactly 6 months ago today!

    Of course, the market took this as a "downgrade" when it clearly WAS NOT! Oh well. Live by the sword (upswings), die by the sword (downswings).

  1. Constable Odo

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2007

    +2

    It must have looked like a downgrade to a lot of

    investors because Apple got thoroughly clobbered (along with many others) today. Even if Apple does have a blowout December quarter earnings it will likely put Apple level to where it was in December 2007 at around $205. Not much progress in two years for long investors. Although a lot better than other stocks have fared over that two year period. Many hopeful Apple investors were looking for Apple to be around $220 - $225 before earnings. Now it doesn't seem so likely (to me).

  1. Fast iBook

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Mar 2003

    +2

    Apple stock...

    AAPL has long been disconnected from any real world logic & valuation. If apple went away who would msft et al copy & compete with? Apple is just a company, yes, but without this one particular company, innovation would slow to nearly nothing. The company is not really able to be valued reasonably aside from pure accounting, costs vs revenue. If they took into consideration what the company does for the global tech industry, it's share prices would be in the high hundreds, and not fluctuate that much.

    Remember AAPL at 13.50? I do. This price was around when they started work on the iPhone project in 2005.

    - A

  1. Raman

    Mac Elite

    Joined: Mar 2001

    +1

    Retards

    Its frightening that the worth of a company swings up and down based on if the broker's and -I'll use the term loosely - analysts - have taken their antipsychotics.

    I'm no expert but it seriously must insult stockholders' intelligence when a stock moves because of what an "analyst" thinks or the way a market-mover scratches his nuts, rather than goods and services being bought and sold.

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