Analysts change up estimates ahead of Q1 results, tablet
updated 02:00 pm EST, Fri January 22, 2010
Apple stock down 5 percent in three days
Several market firms have published new memos on Apple today, which represents the last full weekday before Apple will announce its first-quarter financial results. The most radical note appears to have come from Deutsche Bank, which has removed Apple from its short-term Buy list. BMO Capital by contrast has raised its price target from $245 to $250, repeating an Outperform rating.
The firm's non-GAAP FY 2010 EPS estimate has been raised from $10.58 to $11.65, while the GAAP figure is up from $7.47 to $7.88. For 2011, non-GAAP EPS numbers have been raised from $10.27 to $12.05. Regarding a tablet, BMO's Keith Bachman suggests that it may add 60 to 80 cents of EPS in CY 2010, assuming 4 million in sales, a $600 pricetag and a 40 percent gross margin.
Hudson Square Research writes that Q1 2010 results should exceed $11.47 billion in sales, with a GAAP EPS of $1.94. The firm is calling for a more pessimistic take on iPhone shipments than Street consensus, using 7.5 million units instead of 9 million. Regardless it is holding onto a Buy rating, and a $250 price target.
RBC Capital's Q1 forecast is $12.2 billion in revenue with a $2.14 GAAP EPS, or $3.44 in non-GAAP terms. Shipments are expected to include 3 million Macs and 9 million iPhones. A 2010 GAAP EPS estimate has been raised from $7.57 to $7.97, and in 2011 Apple is now predicted to generate $9.90, rather than $8.67. RBC is holding onto an Outperform rating and a $275 price target.
Apple stock has slid roughly 5 percent in value during the past three days. The exact reasons are unknown, but are likely connected to action and/or nervousness ahead of the Q1 results call, as well as Apple's upcoming tablet reveal. The stock market as a whole has also suffered in some sectors.






Fresh-Faced Recruit
Joined: Oct 2001
Deutsche Bank "fact"
"The most radical note appears to have come from Deutsche Bank, which has removed Apple from its short-term Buy list."
True . . . but not because they WANTED to! The firm has internal controls that require it to remove a stock from a short-term buy list 6 months after it was added. Lo and behold, Apple was added on July 22, 2009, exactly 6 months ago today!
Of course, the market took this as a "downgrade" when it clearly WAS NOT! Oh well. Live by the sword (upswings), die by the sword (downswings).