'Hiccups' may affect iPhone sales

Apple's fourth-quarter earnings could disappoint, says Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner. In spite of generally optimistic predictions elsewhere, the analyst is calling for "slightly disappointing" revenue, and urging investors to avoid buying shares until after Apple issues its report. The central issue is iPhone sales, which Reiner suggests may fall below his prediction of 6 million units, already lower than a consensus of just over 7 million.

Apple may be suffering from "component/manufacturing hiccups," he says, as evidenced by the sales revealed at an iPod event on September 9th. The company hinted that only 3.5 million iPhones had been sold in the quarter to date, with 21 days remaining. As the iPhone 3GS has repeatedly sold out in regions around the world, Reiner notes that Apple must be experiencing problems meeting demand, making it virtually impossible that another 3.5 million phones could have shipped in the space of weeks.

Should Apple stock fall substantially next week, the analyst advises buying large quantities of stock, as several factors could push stock back up. These include a potentially large December quarter for the iPhone, assuming no more obstacles, and better Mac sales as a result of iMac and MacBook refreshes. In early 2010, the company is expected to announce its rumored tablet.

by MacNN Staff