updated 04:25 pm EDT, Wed October 7, 2009
Device's hold on Apple strengthening
The iPhone will account for nearly all of Apple's year-over-year growth when it reports the results of its September quarter, says Caris & Company analyst Robert Cihra. The device is forecast to represent 25 percent of the quarter's reported revenue, or 38 percent of non-GAAP revenue. Cihra has raised his price target for Apple stock, which now sits at $235.
iPhone influence on Apple is only set to grow, Cihra suggests. Total 2009 iPhone sales are expected to be up 94 percent over 2008, at 26.6 million. In 2010 Apple may sell 36.6 million or more iPhones, achieving a 16 percent smartphone marketshare, and a 3 percent share of all cellphone sales. The figures may nevertheless be exceeded, as the iPhone is "unquestionably now the most top-of-mind phone/software/delivery platform across its entire industry from handset competitors through carriers," according to Cihra.
By 2011 the iPhone could become Apple's most important product, dwarfing even Macs, which have long been the company's core business. iPods are expected to continue shrinking in relative worth, though the iPod touch is called an "ace up Apple's sleeve" thanks to its compatibility with the App Store.
September-quarter Mac sales are meanwhile predicted to be a healthy 2.8 million, and only set to increase in the December quarter thanks to rumored iMac, MacBook and Mac mini updates. Among these could be a cheaper plastic MacBook.