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Analysts point to universal content, high 2010 iPhone sales

updated 11:20 am EDT, Fri October 2, 2009

Phone sales based on App Store, carrier deals

UBS analyst Maynard Um has switched his rating for Apple stock from Neutral to Buy, and substantially raised his price target, pushing it from $170 to $265. The increase is linked mainly to predictions of repeating iPhone hardware revenue, driven by a growing install base, and the "stickiness" of the App Store. Also important in this regard is thought to be the coming end of exclusive carrier arrangements, such as O2's control over the United Kingdom. Apple is now expected to sell 36 million iPhones in the 2010 fiscal year, instead of 25.9 million. Pro forma revenue and EPS figures are predicted to be $51.6 billion and $11.08.

Um further suggests that Apple is working on the foundations of a new service, one which could allow for "seamless" access and movement of digital content across all of its products. Users would in theory be able to tap into material from both iTunes and MobileMe on any device, and additionally exploit various forms of social networking. Such a service could be the element that lures more people into buying Apple hardware, says Um.

Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty has meanwhile elevated her own predictions for 2010, calling for at least 41.7 million in iPhone sales, double those expected for 2009. More emphasis is placed on non-exclusive carrier deals, which Huberty notes increased iPhone marketshare in France by 136 percent. American freedom of choice may have to wait, as Apple is not expected to sign a deal with Verizon until 2011, when the carrier's LTE (4G) deployment should be finished. AT&T is likewise building out an LTE network.

Huberty is now forecasting $45.3 billion in revenue for 2010, scratching an earlier number of $38.2 billion. The new accompanying EPS estimate is $10.50, 13 percent over Street consensus.

by MacNN Staff




  1. Fast iBook

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I have a feeling...

    I have a feeling 2010 is when apple takes an even bigger chunk of the handset market, and increases mac sales to gain at least another % point in over all market share.

    - A

  1. climacs

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Suck it Ballmer

    spin that one monkeyboy.

    Where's luckyday, by the way? I'm SHOCKED it didn't show up here to fling its f**** around.

  1. iphonerulez

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Ballmer has already stated...

    41 million iPhones is a "rounding error" compared to the potential number of WinMo smartphones that will be sold in 2011. I'm fairly certain Ballmer believes that if a WinMo smartphone is cheap enough, he can sell 41 million WinMo handsets in Mumbai, India, alone. After all, Microsoft isn't concerned about quality, support or anything else except market share.

    His vision is that if you sell it cheap enough, people will buy it based on price alone. In some countries, he may be right. Not sure if manufacturers can make money off some dream like that, but Microsoft is only interested in selling group licenses and as long as they get their money up front, whatever happens after that is not their concern. Not much of a way to build brand loyalty, but maybe things like that don't really matter.

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