50M iPhones by 2011?

Apple has the potential to start selling over 50 million iPhones a year by FY11, argues Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi. Simply through a projected 27 percent growth of the smartphone market in both 2010 and 2011, says the analyst, Apple may gain 10.3 million more in sales, assuming the current marketshare holds. The company is currently expected to sell 20 million phones by the end of FY09, which arrives in September.

The thrust of growth could come from an increased number of carriers in existing sales regions. In the US alone, adding Verizon as a carrier option in 2011 could increase sales by over 11 million; in Asia, extra carriers could add 4 million phones. The same move in Europe is said to have the potential of adding 3.5 million units.

If Apple manages to seal a deal with China Unicom, some 2.9 million iPhones could be sold in China. A pact with China Mobile has the potential to double that number.

Figures could exceed 50 million in FY11, says Sacconaghi, if Apple works on offering more pre-paid phones, and/or ones without data requirements. 75 percent of all cellphones are said to be used on a pre-paid basis, while ones without a data focus are believed to represent 80 percent. "We believe that more aggressively targeting the prepaid market with lower price models or offering an iPhone that does not require a data plan -- but still has WiFi connectivity -- could significantly expand Apple’s addressable market," the analyst comments.

The company is claimed to have two options: reduce pricing on current phones, or produce a new, stripped-down device. The latter could potentially cut down profit margins.

by MacNN Staff