Analysts on Apple Q309

(Updated with new Piper memo) Apple should beat some earlier predictions in its Q3 2009 results, set to be announced on Tuesday. Thomson Financial observes that consensus estimates have been consistently rising, and now stand at roughly $8.18 billion in revenue, with $1.16 in earnings per share. Apple by contrast has maintained a conservative guidance, calling for EPS of 95 cents on between $7.7 and $7.9 billion in revenue.

A group of unaffiliated analysts, such as Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross, are calling for EPS between $1.27 and $1.35, and as much as $8.35 billion in revenue. The elevated forecast stems from gross margins, which are expected to land between 35 and 37 percent, as compared to Apple guidance of 33 percent. The latter figure is thought to be in use by the bulk of affiliated analysts, potentially a critical mistake. "If you look at the past three years of earnings," says Zaky, "there has never been an instance where Q2 gross margin percentage surpassed Q3 gross margin percentage."

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster cautions that while quarterly Mac sales could amount to 2.2 million, and show a boost from new MacBook Pros, performance is believed to be down relative to Apple's own benchmark. IDC figures show American Mac shipments down more than 12 percent, relative to overall PC decline of 3.1 percent worldwide. Apple may additionally be hurt by slumping iPod numbers, thought by Piper to be 7 percent lower than in the same quarter of 2008.

Analyst Brian Marshall of Broadpoint AmTech adds that Apple has poured $800 million more into its cash reserves, for a total of $28.9 billion. The reserve is said to be the second largest in the tech industry, dwarfed only by Cisco's $29 billion. Major PC builders Dell and HP only have $9 billion and $12 billion, respectively.

Update: A new Piper memo, released today, calls for as many as 2.6 million Macs in the quarter, based on NPD data pointing to a surprise 16 percent jump in the month of June. Previously Piper had called for June to sit at 5 percent. Year-over-year growth for the quarter could reach as high as 5 percent, signifying Apple's best-ever Q3 Mac sales.

iPod sales may be even worse than expected however, down 13 percent year-over-year at 9.6 million units. Street numbers are calling for a 14 percent drop.

by MacNN Staff