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iPhone 3.0, Palm Pre to drive phone demand

updated 12:20 pm EDT, Wed April 8, 2009

ChangeWave on Apr Demand

iPhones running the OS 3.0 update and the Palm Pre are both likely to spur the next wave of smartphone sales in the next three months, according to a new ChangeWave study. Of those looking to buy a device in the 90 days following the March survey, iPhone demand is technically remaining flat at 30 percent; however, about 20 percent of the total group said they would be more likely to buy an iPhone now that iPhone OS 3.0's features are public.

Of those whose interest is sparked by the prospect of iPhone 3.0, demand is evenly split by the theoretical capacities of new hardware. About 9 percent would be willing to buy a 32GB iPhone at the $299 price of the current 16GB model, while 11 percent would want to buy a 16GB iPhone if it was lowered to the $199 price of an 8GB version. If a stripped-down 8GB model were available at $99, 8 percent would opt for that model.

Palm remains a distant third in demand but has seen plans to buy one of its phone spike from just 1 percent in December to 4 percent in March based almost exclusively on favorable impressions of the Pre, which brings a new OS and a more modern touchscreen design.

Conversely, demand for BlackBerries has actually cooled over the past 4 months, dropping from 39 percent to 37 percent. The decline is assigned to a cooldown following the launch of the BlackBerry Storm.

ChangeWave warns that Palm may have trouble increasing demand due to loyalty, as only 1 percent of existing iPhone users and 4 percent of BlackBerry users would consider switching to any of Palm's phones. Just 1 percent are also willing to switch to Sprint for any device.

by MacNN Staff



  1. Constable Odo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    It's odd that BlackBerry

    demand dropped, yet it's subscriber base grew quite a bit which in turn boosted RIMs share price. It's really hard to equate these charts to the real world. Maybe it's just a lag in data.

  1. Johnny Niles

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Sprint will definitely be the Pre's biggest obstacle. I'm planning on buying a new iPhone, assuming a new model is announced in June.

  1. resuna

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Windows Mobile?

    Windows Mobile isn't even showing on the plot?

  1. vasic

    Joined: Dec 1969


    It should be

    Windows Mobile is currently at 27% (down 2%). For some reason, it was excluded from this particular graph. Android finally appeared on the radar with its own 1%. The remaining 1% belongs to everyone else.

  1. vasic

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Correction: WinMob market share is now 18% (i.e. below iPhone). That makes much more sense. Especially considering that it got there from 29% last June...!

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Re: It's odd that

    demand dropped, yet it's subscriber base grew quite a bit

    That's because you're misreading the charts. The charts are about future purchasing plans. So demand in the near future dropped 2% for Blackberry probably, as it states, because of the ramp-up of spent demand (i.e. purchases) of the release of the Storm.

    For example, look how the iPhone's demand dropped in Jun 07 (when it was released, thus the initial demand was sated - or by others who gave up at the time because they couldn't buy one), and how it spiked high in Jun 08 right before the iPhone v2 was released, and dropped the next quarter as, again, the initial demand was quenched.

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