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Apple to take 20 percent of Chinese smartphones?

updated 04:05 pm EDT, Fri March 27, 2009

BoA on Chinese iPhone

Apple could control as much as 20 percent of the smartphone market in China if it launches the iPhone there, argues Bank of America analyst Scott Craig. The data is said to be based on Apple's own assertions, as exposed through sources in the company's Asian supply chain. Apple feels it can easily meet the 20 percent target, according to Craig, and may even believe it can do better if given the right circumstances.

In spite of attempts to drain inventory, iPhone production is still said to be slightly higher than predicted, a sign of a continuing strong demand. Craig's FY09 EPS estimates have been raised from $5.26 to $5.31 under GAAP limitations, or from $7.04 to $7.28 when including the deferred iPhone and Apple TV revenue; the target price for Apple stock is now up from $110 to $120.

Should Apple manage to secure a Chinese iPhone deal by mid-year, it is thought that Apple could sell 1.5 million units there in CY09, with another 4.6 million in CY10, and 5.8 million in CY11. The figures are based on a cost of $500 to $600 per phone, though local carriers will likely offer subsidies. More might be sold if the base cost is decreased.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. Constable Odo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    They really enjoy...

    throwing out numbers considering Apple doesn't yet sell iPhones in China. I'm curious if Apple will sell some Chinese version of the iPhone that will be fairly less expensive than the U.S. counterpart.

  1. bredlo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    Free Tibet App?

    I'm writin' me a new app, and all it will do is fill the screen with FREE TIBET.

    Let's watch to see how China puts tons of restraints on apps, website access, and whatever else they feel threatened by. And watch another American company cave into their demands rather than stand up to these pseudo-communist bullies.

  1. Gazoobee

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    interesting

    The "Free Tibet" app wouldn't make it past the approval process of course, but it will be interesting to see how Apple tries to dance around China's requests.

    China is oriented pretty close to a Fascist model nowadays but both Google and Yahoo have caved to their demands (MS too but that's a given for them).

    They already have a Chinese iTunes store but it looks at the moment as if it's all apps and no media content. I wonder how that's going to work? If Apple allows a separate media store to provision the iPhone, then they are opening the door to competitors, if they force them to connect to iTunes, then Apple is censoring (more than they already do), content.

    In one way, as a non-USA citizen I find the outrage about China censorship kind of amusing. Apple already heavily censors what you can and can't see or buy on iTunes, but it does so in a way that is acceptable to USA citizens. The difference here is really only that China censors things that USA citizens would not.

    Are they really that different? How will Apple handle censorship moving forward as a global entity?

  1. cortex9

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    Free America App

    @ bredlo

    And after you're done, you can release a "Give The Land Back to The Native Americans" app.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    -2

    Re: Interesting

    in one way, as a non-USA citizen I find the outrage about China censorship kind of amusing.

    Oh, many a USA citizen finds it hysterical (in the comic way, although the outrage is also hysterical in the 'hysteria' way), and it has nothing to do with Apple.

    "Yahoo censors their results! Shame on them! Ban them from doing business! Now off to Target to get my $5 sweat socks made by political prisoners!"

    Apple already heavily censors what you can and can't see or buy on iTunes, but it does so in a way that is acceptable to USA citizens. The difference here is really only that China censors things that USA citizens would not.

    Oh, and lest we forget, we're also in an uproar over any attempt by companies trying to help China track down people over the internet. Sure, companies do the same in the US, all without warrants or real cause, all the time, but that's different. They're 'protecting' us from terrorists, child p***, and illegal music sharing.

    It's the "Others should be more tolerant of Americans, but Americans should not be tolerant of anyone different than us" mentality.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    -4

    Re: Guest

    OMG! Daddy let you use the computer today! How nice!

    So now you're into making fun of people's names and saying they drink their own pee. Wow, you must be the hit with the 8 year olds.

    And what is this whole "Drinking your own pee" thing? Is that supposed to raise one's ability to combat Steve Jobs' RDF?

    Oh, and at least I log in to post, not hide behind some "Guest" posting.

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