AAPL Stock: 111.6 ( -0.52 )

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Economy prompts lower AAPL estimates from JP Morgan

updated 01:30 pm EST, Fri March 6, 2009

JP Morgan down on AAPL

News of a worsening recession has led a JP Morgan analyst, Mark Moskowitz, to further reduce estimates for Apple stock. Moskowitz's price target for Apple has been lowered from $102 to $100, and for the 2009 fiscal year, the analyst has cut EPS predictions down from $4.82 to $4.73. In FY10, EPS is expected to be only $5.15 instead of $5.26.

"The deepening global downturn partly drives our Apple model forecast lower," says Moskowitz. "In prior recessions, the consumer had been fairly resilient, but mounting job losses, shrinking home values, and tight credit stand to make the current recession quite more challenging."

Matching the analyst's sour views on stock are lower unit shipment estimates for the March quarter, which Moskowitz says will now amount to 2.19 rather than 2.39 million Macs, and 3.4 million iPhones instead of 3.8. Sources for JP Morgan claim that sales are already on a downward swing; compensating somewhat may be cheaper components, which should keep Apple margins inflated.

The company nevertheless remains vulnerable, according to Moskowitz, as it is thought that as much as 70 to 75 percent of its revenue is gleaned from the consumer market.

by MacNN Staff




  1. umijin

    Joined: Dec 1969


    No Cred

    JP Morgan? You mean one of those bailout investment banks? They got like $25 billion to stay solvent.

    You can take what they think worth a grain of salt.

  1. danviento

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Too Bad

    Too bad that doesn't translate to appreciably lower Apple hardware prices. With the recent release of Mac Pros, we're still not seeing the drop to match the times. Of course, Apple is still beating the market, so they can probably afford the lower than forecasted sales numbers.

    Best of luck... "Were gonna need it."

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