updated 01:30 pm EST, Fri March 6, 2009
JP Morgan down on AAPL
News of a worsening recession has led a JP Morgan analyst, Mark Moskowitz, to further reduce estimates for Apple stock. Moskowitz's price target for Apple has been lowered from $102 to $100, and for the 2009 fiscal year, the analyst has cut EPS predictions down from $4.82 to $4.73. In FY10, EPS is expected to be only $5.15 instead of $5.26.
"The deepening global downturn partly drives our Apple model forecast lower," says Moskowitz. "In prior recessions, the consumer had been fairly resilient, but mounting job losses, shrinking home values, and tight credit stand to make the current recession quite more challenging."
Matching the analyst's sour views on stock are lower unit shipment estimates for the March quarter, which Moskowitz says will now amount to 2.19 rather than 2.39 million Macs, and 3.4 million iPhones instead of 3.8. Sources for JP Morgan claim that sales are already on a downward swing; compensating somewhat may be cheaper components, which should keep Apple margins inflated.
The company nevertheless remains vulnerable, according to Moskowitz, as it is thought that as much as 70 to 75 percent of its revenue is gleaned from the consumer market.