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AAPL Stock: 111.78 ( -0.87 )

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Analysts approve of Q1 results, sound warning bells

updated 12:00 pm EST, Thu January 22, 2009

Analyst Q1 verdicts

Apple did better than expected in its Q109 results, but there are definite causes for concern, claim analysts with Kaufman and UBS. Kaufman staffer Shaw Wu observes that the 34.7 percent gross margin achieved was substantially better than guidance of 30 to 31 percent, and even the optimistic Kaufman forecast of 31.7 percent. iPods also did extremely well, beating predictions of 18 to 20 million by reaching 22.7. MacBook sales were up 34 percent year-over-year.

MacBook sales only helped to offset slumping desktop sales however, which actually fell 25 percent year-over-year. UBS analyst Maynard Um warns that unless Apple is able to stem the trend, MacBook sales will have to grow at a significantly faster level to compensate, perhaps an unreachable one. Desktop decline could average 20 percent in FY09, and grow only 4 percent in FY10.

The iPhone is another worry, as Wu notes that the approximate 4.4 million units shipped were at best on the middle-low end of expectations. Um proposes that the next quarter could see a second sequential decline, and that current margins and selling prices are unsustainable. Another update to hardware, writes Um, may be the iPhone's only hope of real success.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. gperks

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +8

    Wow

    Best quarter EVER in Apple's history, in the context of the worst financial crisis since before Apple even existed, and the analysts are down? One can only wonder how Apple would have done in a sound economy. Apple added about $3B to their cash... which is now over $28B, and a significant amount of book value.

    The iPhone barely has any hope of success? WTH is this person on?

  1. bjojade

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +5

    Hardware update??

    So the only success to the iPhones ongoing popularity will be some sort of hardware update? Gee, ya think Apple isn't planning to ever do that? Nah, this is the final design. They plan to ride on this one forever and never, ever update it again. I mean, it's working for the Mac mini, why not do the same thing with the phone?

  1. chefpastry

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +4

    Wu

    Shaw Wu is a manipulator.

  1. ZinkDifferent

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    chefpastry...


    Actually, Shawn Wu is one of the more level headed analysts.

    Maynard Um (what a name!) is the one that is singing doom and gloom, is clueless, and is hoping to manipulate the stock downards.

  1. chucker

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +2

    margins

    34% margins - I feel abused

  1. Laphroaig

    Joined: Dec 1969

    -1

    Big Whoop de Wu

    Blah, Blah, Blah...We've heard it all before. Might it be time to resurrect the "beleaguered Apple" moniker. ;->. The analysts problem is is they want to throw Apple in with the likes of Dell, Acer, MSF, etc., who sell what now amounts to a commodity. Apple doesn't fit that model at all. If and when Apple frees up the iPhone from ATT & or ATT offers a cheaper plan sales will be off the charts. I would buy one tomorrow if I could just have wiFi and calling at a resonable rate.

  1. njfuzzy

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    Not a new model

    The simplest and fastest thing Apple can do to up iPhone sales isn't another hardware update-- it's a price drop, with all the surrounding fanfare.

  1. B9bot

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +1

    Analysts are STUPID!!!

    This is stock manipulation if I have ever seen it. This should be illegal!!!!!

    A FRICKEN 10 BILLION DOLLAR QUARTER!!!!!!!
    THAT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH!!!!
    THERE'S A DOWN SIDE??????

    OH MY GOD, how stupid are these people? The stock IS TO FRICKEN LOW FOR GODS SAKE, IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO $300.00 a share for this kind of performance!!!!

  1. dynsight

    Joined: Dec 1969

    +3

    Update iMacs

    Apple really needs to make the iMac more attractive (not design wise); either add features (TV tuner built in, Blu-Ray, better sound) add a mini-tower (NOT going to happen) or do major update to the mac-mini.

    The iMac's have been ho-hum for a while now.

    And LOWER the price on the new 17" macbook pro. It is $1000 too much compared to similar priced machines (sorry, this is a pet peeve of mine)

  1. Bobfozz

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    As predicted...

    This morning or yesterday I predicted on here within 48 hours the anal-ysts would be whining and moaning about Apple's performance... "It was good but ti could've been so much better... and then there is the next quarter."
    If these guys are so predictable they shouldn't be selling anything. Considering the problems of the over-hyped economy problems, Apple did pretty damn well. The anal-ysts were wrong in their numbers and expectations, let's figure they will be wrong on other things(as they have been). They are only right in predicting things such as the sun will rise tomorrow.
    And Wu has become just like the others. Apple can make money (stockwise) for some of these weasels when they manipulate the market and their customers... they may not think they have the power, but there a lot of dim bulbs out there who buy this stuff called stocks.

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