Apple Q1 results still expected to beat guidance
updated 11:05 am EST, Thu January 15, 2009
UBS, Kaufman on Q1
Apple will still beat guidance for its fiscal first quarter, even if it may not do as well as previously hoped for, analysts with UBS and Kaufman Bros. suggest. The latter is expecting $9.76 billion in revenue, with an EPS beating Apple 's guidance of $1.06 to $1.35. The consensus view is $9.85 billion and $1.39 however, and Kaufman had once called for figures of $10 billion and $1.44.
The firm does note however that it expects superior margins on Apple hardware, around 31.7 percent, due to Apple holding back on price cuts and taking advantage of cheap component pricing. Apple has generally been predicting margins of 30 to 31 percent. Shipments, meanwhile, are expected to be divided between 2.55 million Macs, 19 million iPods and 5.5 million iPhones.
UBS analyst Maynard Um has adopted a similar view, though he offers a more general prediction of between $9 and $10 billion in revenue, and EPS near or above the high end of Apple guidance. UBS is holding to a $110 price target, $10 less than Kaufman's.
In the long run Kaufman says it is modeling $7.8 billion in revenue and $1.08 in EPS for the March quarter, below consensus levels of $8.3 billion and $1.13. The situation is said to be more optimistic for 2009 as a whole, as while FY09 revenue forecasts are being dropped from $35.2 to $34.9 billion, EPS is slated to remain at $5.05.
