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Microsoft facing tough times for 2009?

updated 01:05 pm EST, Thu December 11, 2008

MS facing tough 2009?

Microsoft may be facing harder times than expected going into 2009, various analysts argue. Although the company itself has posted conservative guidance for the near future, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Holt says he is lowering both his fiscal Q2 and fiscal 2009 projections, mainly on the belief that PC sales have slackened considerably. Complicating the situation, according to Bernstein's Jeffrey Lindsay, is that the emergence of netbooks represents a wildcard -- because of their limited purpose many of them are able to use Linux, or lower-end versions of Windows.

A similar problem exists in the enterprise world, where corporations may be tempted to switch to SaaS (Software as a Service) subscriptions, instead of making occasional payments for upgrades to software like Office or Exchange. Lindsay notes, however, that Microsoft is unlikely to be threatened in this area by cloud computing, espoused by companies such as Google. A hybrid approach is believed to be more likely for the market.

Benchmark's Brent Williams suggests that a more serious threat comes from diminishing IT budgets, which may lead companies to delay renewing licenses. His FY09 EPS estimate has dropped 6 cents to $1.99, and revenue for the year is expected to be $64.6 billion, $850 million less than previously predicted. These figures are generally on par with consensus, although in the latter case revenue has been pegged at $64.7 billion.

Holt is more pessimistic, pegging FY09 EPS at $1.84, and revenue at $62.2 billion.

by MacNN Staff



  1. Paul Huang

    Joined: Dec 1969


    When a 5-year-old comp...

    When a five-year-old Pentium computer with only 256MB of RMA is outfitted with the following:

    1GB of RAM
    pull out the 80GB and replaced with 320GB

    for the price of $80

    Windows Vista does not seem that glamorous anymore.

    Many of the bottle necks are being addressed rather than dumping money into things that provide no capital efficiency.

    512MB x 2 DDR2 RAM: free (all over the floor from MacBook/MacBook Pro pulls)
    1GB x 2 DDR2 RAM: just about free, they are starting to populate my "trash" can now.

    250GB hard drive (2.5" or 3.5") are priced about the same for the first time in history (around $50).

    Although the storage space is not need, the above two combined provide the much-needed smoothness in the workplace.

    Office 2007? Forget about it. 2003 is already in use and we can just continue to use the old version. Nothing lost.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969



    You mean a company is expected to face tough times in the middle of a recession? You're kidding me! Next thing you know they're going to say that high fuel prices will drive down demand of expensive gas-guzzling SUVs!

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