iPhone, Mac sales expected to survive Dec. quarter
updated 09:45 am EST, Mon November 17, 2008
Piper on iPhone, Mac sales
This year's December quarter should be rough for Apple, but not as terrible as has been predicted elsewhere, note analysts with Piper Jaffray. The group says that it spent 25 hours in Apple Stores across the US last week, and based on this, it is estimating a 5 to 15 percent sequential decline in iPhone shipments, with a target figure of 8 percent. While this is liable to be disappointing, given that the holiday season normally boosts shipments 15 percent, Piper observes that this is far superior to results from other checks which have pointed to a decline as sharp as 40 percent. The improved estimate is based on both the typical holiday bump and an expanded international market, which could theoretically support as many as 989 million iPhone subscribers versus the September quarter's 153 million.
Macs are expected to suffer a 5 percent sequential decline, but should still sell in excess of the 2.6 million units previously anticipated. This is first because year-over-year checks show a 90 percent increase instead of 13, but also because of the new aluminum MacBooks launched in October, which Piper suggests have likely fulfilled a "pent up demand." Because October was not represented in recent checks, it is uncertain how much of a push it might provide to the quarter; November demand is described as being "healthy," however.
I bet Apple beats that.
11/17, 10:07am reply
My bet is that Apple will beat Piper's estimate easily.
horvatic
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Piper has made...
11/17, 10:32am reply
.. a rather ginormous assumption based on just 25 hours of research. Did that include travel time?
psdenno
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Shocking!
11/17, 10:35am (1 reply) reply
So, if Apple survives, who's being voted off the island?
testudo
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Re: Piper has made...
11/17, 10:37am reply
a rather ginormous assumption based on just 25 hours of research.
As opposed to the usual analyst-killers here. So, how much research have you done on this?
What about you, horvatic? Or is your "easily beat Piper's estimates" just the usual "anal-ysts don't know what they're talking about when it comes to Apple" spiel?
testudo
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Deferred Income
11/17, 01:12pm reply
What surprises me is that the analysts continualy ignore the incredible amount of defered income which should be comming in. This coupled with their profit sharing with AT&T and the other phone companies makes the current low price of apple stock incredibly illogical. It should be trading for a LOT more right now.
Guest
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Deferred Income
11/17, 01:13pm reply
What surprises me is that the analysts continually ignore the incredible amount of deferred income which should be coming in. This coupled with their profit sharing with AT&T and the other phone companies makes the current low price of apple stock incredibly illogical. It should be trading for a LOT more right now.
Guest
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989 million subscribers..
11/17, 04:36pm reply
ZOMG. Who is he kidding? I thought most of those so-called subscribers in many of those countries could barely afford electricity and food. I sure hope he isn't talking about India. Those people are so happy to own $25 Nokia full-featured handsets that they wouldn't take an iPhone if it was given to them. Holy smokes.
iPhones will have respectable sales this holiday in countries overseas, but hardly to the degree Gene Munster is predicting. He must have forgotten this is the year of the netbook.
Constable Odo
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lower prices
11/18, 11:08am reply
have a way of attracting new buyers during tough times.
So do matte screens.
Loren
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Analysts
11/24, 05:39pm reply
I would consider even a 15% drop in shipments to be positive considering the current economic climate. How they reached this magical figure is beyond me though - 25 hours in apple stores across the USA, that could be 5 people going to 5 different apple resellers in their lunch breaks over the course of the week.
Apple would have a far more accurate picture of sales/shipments through their supply-chain than a few Analysts spending their lunch breaks in Apple stores.
Guest
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