updated 11:40 am EST, Tue November 11, 2008
Extra $1.2B in Q1 2009
Apple could earn as much as $1.2 billion more in revenue than most analysts have predicted for the next quarter, says Bullish Cross. Consensus views are said to predict $10.08 billion in revenue for Apple's first fiscal quarter of 2009, generating $1.44 in EPS. Cross is calling for $1.96 in EPS from $11.29 billion in revenue, suggesting that other analysts have become "absurdly bearish," devaluing Apple stock even more than usual.
While analysts have are said to be worried about the shrinking of public spending during the holiday season, given the onset of a global recession, it is noted that the possible level of decline remains uncertain, and even in pessimistic scenarios should still produce more revenue than consensus.
Should even iPod sales shrink dramatically, and Mac sales stay flat sequentially, Cross argues that Apple will still surpass revenue expectations by almost $500 million. Analysts are also said to be ignoring the massive impact of the iPhone, solely because its revenue is technically unrecognized under GAAP accounting rules. Apple itself has meanwhile issued an unusually conservative Q1 forecast, but is said to have done so only because it wants to be "prudent" in predicting what it can achieve. Most Apple forecasts are known to be unnecessarily pessimistic, leading Cross to dispute any analysis pegged to them.