Analyst backs lower iPhone production numbers
updated 10:30 am EST, Wed November 5, 2008
UBS on iPhone production
Apple is indeed producing far fewer iPhones than it was earlier this year, writes UBS analyst Maynard Um. Echoing statements from Friedman Billings Ramsey, Um notes that checks with the supply chain indicate that iPhone levels are down by 1.7 million to 2.3 million. Total production for the December quarter could amount to just 4 million, which is below UBS estimates of 5 million and September-quarter production of 9 million. Um says his firm is keeping to estimates, however, and will monitor for any changes.
The analyst meanwhile notes that Apple's selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses for each phone are in line with the company's rivals. This is said to be an impressive feat, as companies like Palm and Research in Motion are known to have had much higher expenses early into their product cycles.
GAAP revenue and EPS estimates for FY09 are unchanged, amounting to $36.7 billion and $5.13, respectively. A drop of 1 million iPhones would hit EPS by 5 cents though, and UBS is holding to a $115 price target based on global economic problems.
Fresh-Faced Recruit
Joined: Aug 2007
Unrealistic analyst
goals for Apple. When Steve Jobs said that he wanted to get 1% of the handset market, people laughed and said it wasn't likely and if Apple did it would be a tremendous feat. So far, Apple has gotten 2%. Apple has continued to exceed expectations by beating the smartphone competition at it's own game.
But the analysts are still not satisfied although Apple is doing better than most companies. Is it unusual for a company to slow down production so you don't get a glut of inventory? How can any company sustain sales in a weak economy. Shouldn't there be some lowered expectations but relative based on other companies sales. As long as the Apple is outpacing the rest of the industry that should be taken into consideration.