updated 12:45 pm EDT, Tue August 5, 2008
UBS posts first AAPL study
UBS Investment Research, writing in its first analysis of Apple stock, says it believes that several new products may be introduced between now and June of 2009. Expected in the second half of 2008 are new iPods, which have traditionally been revealed in September; UBS notes, though, that iPods are becoming increasingly less important to Apple's income, due mainly to increased Mac and iPhone sales. Apple's margins should also stay higher on the iPhone than the iPod, particularly as cannibalization forces the average selling price of iPods down.
UBS also supports the belief that new Macs will arrive within the next few months; rumors have pointed towards redesigned MacBooks, built out of aluminum and equipped with custom mainboards. Checks by the firm also agree with the expectation of new iPhone colors for the Christmas season, though whether a red iPhone 3G is in development is uncertain.
An entirely new iPhone may be in the works for the first half of 2009, which UBS anticipates will have an even heavier corporate focus, moving beyond the basics of Exchange, encryption and remote wiping support. The timeframe may additionally see the release of Apple's rumored sub-notebook system, which UBS thinks has been delayed from a planned 2008 shipment.
The group is generally optimistic about Apple's financial performance, and is predicting $6.09 EPS off of $39.8 billion in revenue in FY09, followed by $7.25 EPS and $46.2 billion in revenue for FY10. UBS is nevertheless forecasting a lower price target than most firms at $195, a figure based on 27x of an adjusted EPS estimate of $7.20 for FY09. This assumes iPhone revenues will begin to be recognized upon sale.