updated 04:55 pm EDT, Wed July 9, 2008
ChangeWave on iPhone 3G
The iPhone 3G should have a massive impact on the smartphone market, claims ChangeWave Research. The group has compiled the results of 3,567 people surveyed after the device's June 9th announcement, and found that while a steady 42 percent owned one of Research in Motion's BlackBerry phones, the original iPhone achieved its fourth consecutive growth period, climbing 2 points to reach 11 percent of the market. This puts it only 3 percent away from Palm, which slid 2 points to hit 14 percent.
This is, however, said to just be foreshadowing a massive jump in Apple share. In questioning of those who said they would buy a smartphone in the next 90 days, some 56 percent chose the iPhone, a 21-point leap from ChangeWave's last poll. This came mainly at the expense of RIM, whose demand slipped from 29 percent to 23.
Only 10.5 percent of the survey group said they were planning a near-term smartphone purchase, but ChangeWave observes that this is still the largest proportion it has ever recorded. "The most likely explanation for such a large-scale projected increase in smartphone buyers going forward is the anticipation and publicity surrounding the imminent release of the 3G iPhone," says ChangeWave founder Tobin Smith.
Of existing iPhone owners, 55 percent claimed they were "very likely" to buy the 3G model for themselves or someone else; dividing further, half of the 3G upgraders said they would be buying within the first 90 days of availability.
RIM's main advantage at present is said to be its corporate adoption, where it retains a "huge lead." The company is also planning to release the substantially improved Bold this year, and possibly two more devices, including a Thunder touchscreen model, and a Kickstart flip phone.