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iPhone 3G may have 'tsunami' impact on smartphones

updated 04:55 pm EDT, Wed July 9, 2008

ChangeWave on iPhone 3G

The iPhone 3G should have a massive impact on the smartphone market, claims ChangeWave Research. The group has compiled the results of 3,567 people surveyed after the device's June 9th announcement, and found that while a steady 42 percent owned one of Research in Motion's BlackBerry phones, the original iPhone achieved its fourth consecutive growth period, climbing 2 points to reach 11 percent of the market. This puts it only 3 percent away from Palm, which slid 2 points to hit 14 percent.

This is, however, said to just be foreshadowing a massive jump in Apple share. In questioning of those who said they would buy a smartphone in the next 90 days, some 56 percent chose the iPhone, a 21-point leap from ChangeWave's last poll. This came mainly at the expense of RIM, whose demand slipped from 29 percent to 23.

Only 10.5 percent of the survey group said they were planning a near-term smartphone purchase, but ChangeWave observes that this is still the largest proportion it has ever recorded. "The most likely explanation for such a large-scale projected increase in smartphone buyers going forward is the anticipation and publicity surrounding the imminent release of the 3G iPhone," says ChangeWave founder Tobin Smith.

Of existing iPhone owners, 55 percent claimed they were "very likely" to buy the 3G model for themselves or someone else; dividing further, half of the 3G upgraders said they would be buying within the first 90 days of availability.

RIM's main advantage at present is said to be its corporate adoption, where it retains a "huge lead." The company is also planning to release the substantially improved Bold this year, and possibly two more devices, including a Thunder touchscreen model, and a Kickstart flip phone.

by MacNN Staff



    Comment buried. Show
  1. Constable Odo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Judging from early

    reviews on the iPhone 3G, it's not as appealing as many hoped it would be. Poor battery life due to 3G use was high on the list of faults. Non user-replaceable battery didn't help. There were claims of the 3G connection dropping out, too. I don't know why they let the media get pre-release devices. No matter, look for Apple's stock to cave regardless of the outcome of iPhone sales.

  1. Guest

    Joined: Dec 1969



    "No matter, look for Apple's stock to cave regardless of the outcome of iPhone sales."

    based on what?

  1. miyazakifan

    Joined: Dec 1969


    it's . . .

    based on history. Every time Apple comes out with a killer product or fantastic sales numbers, their stock tanks.

  1. cebritt

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Old Wall St. Adage

    Buy on rumor, sell on news.

  1. dliup

    Joined: Dec 1969


    re: Constable Odo

    You have been smoking too much funny stuff. 5 hour 3g talk time is "poor battery life"? (the battery life is rated 10 hours if 3g is turned off). Most users never buy an additional battery.

    The reviews are overwhelming good. You FAIL for providing wrong information.

  1. dliup

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Regarding Korea with their next gen network,Korea is a small country, with most people concentrated in few major cities. Thus they can afford to upgrade because cost of upgrade is very low, compared to a large country where people are spread out into suburbs where no one wants a cell antenna near by their town.

  1. Constable Odo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I didn't review the

    iPhone since I don't have one. I'm only repeating what I read from reviews. I don't smoke anything. The reviewer said that battery life was much shorter than the original iPhone if 3G is used. These people that did the review are being reviled on Apple forums. Don't accuse me of making this stuff up.

    My reason for saying the stock will cave is that iPhone expectations are very high and I don't think Apple will get any leeway if there is lower than expected iPhone sales. I'm long on Apple and have a fairly large investment, so I don't want it to cave. If it were to go up to $250 a share today, I'd be doing a victory dance.

    You must not be following the market closely and many stocks are caving. It's not Apple's fault, but regardless of the cause, Apple is being affected as much as any tech stock. I don't know if it will stay down, but I do believe Apple's stock is being held down for sometime now.

    Even though iPhone revenue potential is really high with increased carriers and App store, it's current stock performance does not reflect it. It's lumped in with companies that have no such potential. Don't blame me for this performance. I have no market influence at all. I'm only telling it as I see it.

  1. dimmer

    Joined: Dec 1969



    So you are posting information based on a reviewer who has nor actually used a 3G iPhone? That's kinda lame. It is well known that 3G uses more power (in talk/data), but for most people this isn't going to be significant in actual use (10 hours of talk time isn't enough? Learn to surmise!)

    Apple stock won't cave as a result of this oversight. Better hurry and cover that short.

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