updated 10:10 am EDT, Mon June 23, 2008
Piper on pre-paid iPhones
The likelihood of pre-paid iPhone sales outside North America may hurt the device's ultimate growth potential, write analysts with Piper Jaffray. While the majority of iPhones will be subsidized down to about $200, Piper notes, some 53 percent of potential buyers will likely have to pick a pre-paid phone, costing as much as or more than $600. In such regions demand could be limited, eating into previous unit estimates, investors are said to be worrying.
Piper is nevertheless defending its prediction of 12.9 million iPhone shipments in CY08, and another 45 million in CY09. This is based on Gartner's estimate that Apple holds 20 percent of the North American smartphone market, and 5 percent globally. Piper argues that if the CY09 smartphone market includes 270 million units, Apple can reach the 45 million mark by obtaining a 17 percent marketshare.