updated 02:50 pm EDT, Mon June 16, 2008
RBC: iPhone sales boom
Apple may replicate the success of the iPod with the iPhone 3G, argues RBC's Mike Abramsky. The analyst suggests that in the September quarter of 2008 Apple will sell 5.1 million iPhones, 70 percent more than consensus estimates of 3 million. This would make for an increase of 356 percent year-over-year, paralleling Apple's December 2005 quarter, which saw an approximate threefold growth in iPod numbers. This year's December-quarter iPhone sales are expected to amount to 6.5 million, but this would only be a jump of 181 percent over 2007.
In total Abramsky expects Apple to sell 14 million iPhones by the end of the year, easily surpassing Steve Jobs' goal of 10 million. For 2009 though Abramsky is only predicting sales of 24 million, a drastic difference from Piper Jaffray estimates of 45 million. Observes note however that Piper is factoring in unannounced sibling iPhones, which could make the device more affordable for the average person.
In terms of profit Abramsky is predicting a gain of $1.8 to $6.8 billion in incremental revenue in FY09, with $2.50-9.50 of free cash flow, and $0.29-1.09 per share in forward-12-month EPS, factoring in the absence of revenue sharing from cellphone carriers. General revenue is expected to be $42.5 billion, with a $6.50 EPS.