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AmTech: 3G iPhone 'accelerated,' sold next to 2.5G

updated 10:50 am EDT, Wed April 2, 2008

AmTech: 3G iPhone sooner

A new iPhone equipped with 3G broadband may be arriving much sooner than anticipated, says Shaw Wu of American Technology Research. Although AmTech had predicted a 3G phone for later in the second half of 2008, based on checks with supply chain sources, Wu now believes the new hardware will come in late June or possibly July. This should roughly coincide with the launch of the iPhone 2.0 firmware, which will bring added functionality to the iPhone platform in general.

If the 3G release does occur ahead of predictions, it is believed that Apple CEO Steve Jobs may announce it during his WWDC keynote, scheduled for early June. Wu cites other sources as saying that the current "2.5G" iPhone could remain on the market, using a newer case, but discounted to between $299 and $349 instead of the $399 for a current 8GB model.

As a result of 3G and the new firmware, Wu expects Apple to not only hit its sales target of 10 million phones for 2008, but beat it by reaching 11 million. Adoption is expected to increase dramatically in the second half of the year, and in the long term the iPhone is expected to grow from 2 to 3 percent of Apple's revenue to as much as it currently makes from Macs ($15-20 billion). AmTech's new price target for stock is $175.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. lepton

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Earlier than WWDC

    I believe phones will be out before WWDC. We know App Store is coming in late June. So, developers need a chance to have the new phones in hand, plus the 1.0 developer SDK release, plus the new iPhone OS 2.0 beforehand, so apps for the phones will be ready by the App Store opening. So I see the phones with OS 2.0 in May, the ADK 1.0 at WWDC, a few weeks to polish final apps, and the App Store opens last week in June.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Re: earlier than wwdc

    There's nothing important about new iPhones that require them to be out prior to WWDC. Apple can easily upgrade the firmware of developer phones so they test and polish their apps.

    The wise marketing move would be to unveil the new phones with the new firmware at the time of the app store opening.

  1. njfuzzy

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Looks good

    I suspect that there will generally be two models of iPhone for a while going forward.

    Coming in June or July (about a year after the original launch) we will have the following:

    - Current iPhone in two models (8, 16, or 32) looking the same or only slightly updated, costing less than it does now.

    - 3G iPhone in two models (16, 32, or 64) with a new but recognizable look, starting similar to current prices and going up from there.

    For the next update, probably in another 8-12 months, we will see a repositioning:

    - The low-end will be somewhat smaller, capacities won't be increased, and we will see a new look-- possibly the flip-screen that was patented. Prices will go down.

    - The current iPhone will be removed from the line.

    - The high-end 3G will remain mostly the same, with slight updates. It will just be called "iPhone" similar to when the iPod video became the standard model.

    - There's some chance of a tablet-like iPhone, coming in at around 5", being introduced at this time. If so, capacities will be larger, and there will be some additional surprise feature (killer app) to differentiate. This device will sit between the MacBook and iPhone brands.

  1. njfuzzy

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    another prediction

    One related thing...

    The next time the iPod line (remember them) is updated, we will see a few changes...

    - The iPod touch will just be called "iPod" and will come in two capacities (something from 32, 64, or 128). I wouldn't be surprised to see it in white.

    - The iPod shuffle will see a form-factor update or a price reduction, probably not both. Some chance of capacity boost.

    - The iPod nano will remain much the same. I see a small chance of it becoming the plain old "iPod" instead (to maintain the "touch" brand for their new mobile OS). Next time it is updated after that, expect to see it in white again.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Re: looks good

    I can't see a 64GB model of phone. Seeing how much it costs extra, I can't imagine who'd want to pay that much. (h***, if they want to make it better, they could just add an SD slot to it and allow you to expand it to whatever you can afford at a time. You know, like a lot of phones out there.

  1. njfuzzy

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    testudo

    By this summer, it shouldn't be that expensive. Apple can get away with the 3G iPhone being slightly bigger, so they can use more of the existing chips rather than higher-density storage. They can also charge more for the size upgrade than it actually costs them.

  1. dimplemonkey

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    For you bleeding edgers..

    So based on the proposed (prognosticating) prices and model selections, all you whiners (self included) who do not want to complain about the costs of selling a 1st Gen iPhone to get a new one should start looking to sell now because it will go for even less than a used iPhone currently lists on the web. Call me crazy but that's the trend I'm seeing...

  1. OtisWild

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    added features?

    Video capture + GPS = win.. The BOM for both would be no more than what, $25? I bet video capture could be added as a firmware update already, and GPS chips are super cheap (and in tons of cheapo phones already, thanks E911)... Real GPS, not the c*** for-pay A-GPS please...

    http://www.eetindia.co.in/ART_8800422154_1800005_NP_87940d55.HTM

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Re: testudo

    Apple can get away with the 3G iPhone being slightly bigger,

    Why can they get away with that? People have a desire for phones to be generally small and fit in your hands. You don't want to make them thicker or taller...

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Re: added freatures

    I bet video capture could be added as a firmware update already,

    It could be, since jailbreakers already have the ability to do video with their phone.

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