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Survey points to 6% yearly iPod decline

updated 07:30 pm EST, Mon February 25, 2008

Survey: 6% iPod decline

Analysis of the first month of March quarter iPod NPD data points to iPod sales of between 9.5-10.3 million, according to research firm Piper Jaffray, which would signal a 6 percent year-over-year decline. "While it is way too early to make a definitive call on March quarter iPod units, we have analyzed the first month of NPD data (Jan.) for the quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of 9.5m-10.3m," said Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster. Wall Street consensus on iPod sales for Apple's March quarter currently stand at 10.8 million units, representing a 2 percent year-over-year increase.

"We see this data point as a slight positive, given recent Street chatter of a very weak iPod number for the quarter, and we note that the monthly contribution we have factored in for February and March may be prove to conservative given the iPod shuffle price cut on 2/19, leading to a more back-end-loaded quarter for iPod units," the analyst said.

Piper Jaffray's 9.5m-10.3m unit approximation is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data; when the second month of data is released, the company's analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure than current analysis suggests based on the first month of data. The firm suggests investors supplement the new data with other information.




by MacNN Staff

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Comments

  1. Guest

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    That's because....

    That's because everyone owns one already :)

  1. Bartman

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    iphone

    eventually lots of people are gonna drop their ipods for iphones.. thats one reason apple had to enter the cell phone market.. or so i believe

  1. Guest

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Supplemented

    I think iPod sales will be lower than Piper thinks- Apple has sweetened the incentive programs for dealers and is cutting all kinds of deals with major retailers, such as the Amazon deal today (found elsewhere on MacNN) offering a free iPod shuffle to those who purchase a 32GB iPod touch. The stock price has been hammered already, so I don't think this will impact AAPL as much and of course, Mac sales continue to be strong, but iPod sales are definitely weaker than 6%- think more like 10% YOY declines, if not more...

    -- Abbi Vakil

  1. Guest

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Um...

    But even with a 6% decline in iPod says, the profit from those iPod sales has increased at least 25% due to the lower cost of building them, so even with less sold, there is a much greater profit margin on those. Not to mention that the iTunes sales and rentals should also increase quarter over quarter as the install base grows.

  1. shawnce

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Need market context...

    The question is during the same time period did the market decline proportionally to Apple projected YOY decline?

    If it did, with in a few points, then nothing much to worry about since it easily explained by the economy and market saturation.

  1. bhuot

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    cheating with numbers

    The iPhones should be included with the iPod sales because an iPhone is also a full iPod. You can say anything with numbers - look how Microsoft cheats with numbers.

  1. ff11

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    deleted

    deleted

  1. horvatic

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    Blah,blah,blah.......FUD!

    Analysts full of FUD and doom and gloom. Blah,blah,blah...... There plan is to make the stock price go way down then buy a bunch of it and then suddenly everything will be rosy and they will switch gears again. Talking about illegal stock manipulation! I think it should be illegal for anyone in the market to be able to write or talk about anybody's company stock. None of this makes sense. Apple's last quarter was record breaking in all areas including iPods. FUD!!

  1. mr.mouse

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    horvatic

    Do you actually know what you are talking about? You sound like someone who is bitter that stock you may have bought has gone down and you don't understand the markets enough to know why. You don't work in Finance do you?

    Apple, like every other Public Company, will be exposed to certain analysis and must disclose certain information.

    Anyone who thinks that an analyst publishing a report is price manipulation is either stupid or naive. The markets don't work like that. If you understand financial markets, corporate business and global economies then share prices will make more sense.

  1. Guest

    Joined: Dec 1969

    0

    re: mr.mouse

    "Anyone who thinks that an analyst publishing a report is price manipulation is either stupid or naive" You don't work in finance either, do you? Or you must be young in the job then. Of course every "analysis" is not aimed at price manipulation. But it *does happen*. If you don't believe it, you are naive too. By the way, extremely favourable analysis could also be just "manipulative"...

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