updated 04:20 pm EST, Mon December 17, 2007
Analyst: 24-25m iPods sold
Apple may have sold as many as 24-25 million iPods during the first two months of its December quarter, according to one research analyst. "While it is too early to make a definitive call on December quarter iPod results, we have analyzed the first two months of NPD data (October and November) for the quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of 24m-25m," said Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster, whose current iPod unit estimate for December of 2007 is 23.5 million, above Wall Street consensus of around 23 million.
"We see this as a positive data point, and we note that we have conservatively factored in an average monthly contribution for October of 15 percent and November of 27 percent vs. the 3-year average of 12 percent and 24 percent, respectively, due to the innovative new iPods released in September," Munster said.
The analyst says his 24-25 million unit approximation is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of two months of data; when the third month of data is released his analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure.
New iPods spurring uncharacteristically high sales
Piper Jaffray analyzed the NPD iPod unit data by looking at the percentage contribution in NPD data from each month of the quarter over past December quarters. The firm broke down iPod unit shipments in December of 2004, 2005, and 2006 while conservatively factoring in a larger-than-average October and November monthly contribution to account for new "radically different" iPods announced in September.
"Apple has announced new iPods in September for the last three years, but this year's models are significantly more innovative than the past upgrades," Munster said. "As such, we believe the new iPods are driving sales earlier in the December quarter (in October and November) to a greater degree than in the past."