12/03/2007, 11:40am, EST
Monday, December 3rd
AT&T sends $1 billion msg to Apple - Cringley
The official revelation of a 3G iPhone may have been a deliberate and expensive message to Apple, says tech columnist Robert Cringely. By letting the public know a 3G iPhone was coming in 2008, says Cringely, AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson has deprived both Apple and AT&T of important revenue, since media-savvy shoppers may delay their spending not only on the iPhone itself, but also on the requisite two-year AT&T contract. This could be equivalent to a loss of one million customers for AT&T, a market cap of approximately $1 billion.
Cringely suggests that AT&T is upset with Apple, which is rumored to be joining Google in bidding for the 700MHz wireless spectrum. A network based on the spectrum could be used to create a pure data service meant for computers, but it is argued that it would also be logical for Apple to encourage VoIP, which could even be installed on the iPhone. This would undercut the need for AT&T, with which Apple has a five-year exclusivity deal. The carrier has been resistant to VoIP on its own networks, since unlimited data plans could effectively allow unlimited calling.
AT&T has announced no plans to enter the 700MHz auction, Cringely notes, and if it did it could have to pay $10 billion or more to compete against a juggernaut comprised of Apple, Google and even third or fourth partners.
Filed under: iPhone, industry, Apple
Other story tags: AT&T, Google, VoIP, Cringely
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Steve Jobs said there would be a 3G iPhone when he spoke at the London Apple retail store opening a couple months back.
No one who follows Apple would be expecting them not to intro a 3G iphone in 2008. It's not a message from AT&T. It's not news. It's just Cringely stirring the pot.
Oh, right Stephenson would *deliberate* cause his own business to lose a billion dollars in revenue, just to send a message to Apple? Right!
I have a pretty simple saying in situations like these "Never assume malice (or planning, or a conspiracy) when incompetence is a much better explanation".
Stephenson's, simply, a moron. There, sorted.
And if you're the type that will refrain from buying an iPhone for up to a full year (till the end of calendar 2008) to get 3G, then you're probably the type that won't buy an iPhone anyway.
Jobs gets pissed when anyone steals his thunder.
Although everyone KNOWS a 3G iPhone is coming, no one really knows WHEN. Apple will likely deny the AT&T announcement or do nothing.
And whether or not Apple plans for a 3G phone in 2008 is irrelevant in terms of the "value" of Stephenson's statements... you'd never tell people that the next big thing is coming soon when you still have the current version sitting on your shelves - particularly at this time of year - unless you were up to something, or completely mad.
That being said, it seems far more likely that zinkdifferent is correct in stating that we should never overlook the likelihood of temporary incompetence/insanity :)
Did all of those people stand in line cause they had to have a cell phone the day the iPhone went on sale? Hell no. They wanted to be the first. So if those people weren't even willing to wait a day for the iPhone, why would most people wait for Sometime/2008?
They wont. If they want a iPhone, they will buy one. If it's on the Xmas list, they will get one. The majority of people will not postpone a purchase on a rumor. Unless there is strong evidence to the rumor. ie: not some statement by a company who doesn't even make the iPhone.