10/24/2007, 9:30am, EDT
Wednesday, October 24th
Analysts: Leopard forecast undervalued
Apple has seriously underestimated the earnings potential of Leopard, say several analysts. Discussing the results of the latest financial quarter, Apple COO Tim Cook has predicted $140 million in OS sales between Friday's Leopard launch and the end of the year; Ezra Gottheil of Technology Business Research, however, proposes an estimate of $157 million, with another $50 million in the two following quarters. This is based purely on a consideration of the expanded Mac OS installed base compared to that for Mac OS Tiger, which launched in April 2005.
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster is even more optimistic than Gottheil, proposing that Leopard will add no less than $240 million before 2008, as a result of a differing installed base figure of 23 million, combined with a Tiger-like uptake of 15 percent. Apple itself only suggests a base of 21 million.
Chris Swenson of the research firm NPD Group has declined to suggest exact predictions, but notes that every Mac OS upgrade has sold better than the previous edition, and in the case of Tiger, its sales volume was running 30 percent higher than Panther within two months, and twice as high as Jaguar. Whether Leopard will be a success is dependent on whether Apple can replicate Tiger's combination of promotion, training and support, Swenson argues. This may be helped by Apple's expanded retail presence, now at 197 stores. "Apple's retail stores helped drive sales from a customer education perspective with Tiger," Swenson says. "The customer education efforts in the stores [were] a primary reason for the success of Tiger."
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It's going to be huge. Just wait and see.
Incremental backups is HUGE!!!
Retrospect for my old Mac OS X Servers was $1000.
Sucks, because they seem to hate this popular segment in the pc world, of expandable towers... dunno what to do yet.
But from what I gather from johnathan's comments, he's not looking to replace his G4 tower with something that costs $2500 (um, its what he said). He wants an expandable computer. Why? I don't know, maybe because he has one already and has realized the benefits of having such a machine (being that its upgradable, it has a much longer usable life then the iMacs or the like - which is very important being that you have to save up for 5 years just to afford a decent replacement)
As I've also complained about before, while Apple makes some nice computers, they have a LOT of gaping holes in their offerings. They offer no expandable computer for less then $2500. They offer no 15" laptop for less than $2000. I guess if you've got money to throw around, you don't care. But a lot of people do.
We're mac users. We're told we shouldn't settle for less then what we need/want (like Windows users so often do). Yet Apple doesn't give us what we need. But, then, Apple tends not to care too much about their users as much as they care about themselves.
So while I picked up Puma, Jaguar, Panther, & Tiger on their first day of availability in the past, this one I'm passing on for now (though I'll definitely stop by my Local Apple store on the 26th for a t-shirt!). Leopard seems to have some fancy-animation additions: Stacks, Document-flow, Time Machine, etc. The only real upgrade I'm interested in actually using is Mail 3 and XCode 3. Almost everything else just seems like fancier frosting and not a better cake.
I think Leopard will drive Mac sales for no other reasons that there are a lot of G3 and G4 computers out there that will not operate with the new OS. Mine included. I will buy a new computer in the next few months. Likely in January after the lines are updated.
Apple had a sale when I bought my G4 several years ago. I bought a dual G4 Power mid range Tower for $1599, which was the price of the entry level model at the time. It threw in a seventeen inch monitor to boot.
You write, "What did you pay for your old G4? I don't think it can be all that much less than the Mac Pro. The iMac has a more powerful video card than 75% of the PCs on the market currently, and just because the MacBook Pro is a laptop, it doesn't stop you from plugging it into a monitor with a keyboard and mouse and using it like a desktop with 2 monitors. The Architecture firm I useed to work at did this and they were running CAD software that has more hardware requirements than anything I'm sure you are running. In fact they have gone to MacBook Pro as the primary machine to run their Windows based REVIT CAD software because no other Notebook on the market for under $3000 can run it nearly as well. I plug my MacBook Pro into a 30" Cinema display and use it as a desktop all the time."