07/09/2007, 10:15am, EDT
Monday, July 9th
Analyst: Mac OS X-based iPods by January
The update may be financially important to Apple. Partly because current iPods are seen as redundant to iPhone buyers, iPod growth is expected to fall from 35 percent this year to 13 percent by 2009. By adding a touchscreen and Mac OS X to the already higher capacities of the full-size iPod, Apple may be able to persuade the public that a separate device is still necessary.
Should the new iPods share parts in common with the iPhone, this may also improve Apple's margins, estimated by Piper at a conservative 30 percent instead of the 40 to 60 percent figures suggested by others. The group does note though that while Apple pays approximately $20 more to produce an 8GB iPhone (versus a 4GB model), it charges an extra $100. Furthermore, 95 percent of 253 iPhone buyers surveyed on launch day chose the 8GB product.
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For as great as the iPod is, it is already beginning to look outdated compared to the iPhone. But here's the thing- many many potential iPod buyers, myself included, either have no need for a new phone, or will refuse to switch to AT&T for a myriad of reasons.
Right now, Apple's newest iPod, aka the iPhone, only appeals to a limited segment of the potential market. By being a phone and being locked into AT&T for 5 years, it automatically excludes many buyers who have no desire to pay a termination fee to their current cell provider and/or have no need for a new phone. In addition, the current high end of 8GB will be too small for many who would like to "upgrade" to a new iPod with larger capacity. Even if that goes up in iPhone v2.0, it will probably never reach the capacity of the 80GB iPod, at least not without costing a fortune.
Apple would shoot themselves in the foot in the long run if they let the standard iPod line languish (but they won't!). Sales would eventually drop off, since the market would be saturated with iPods. With no new ones released, most people would have no good reason to buy a new one.
Logically, the standard music and video playing iPod line HAS to be updated to match some of the capabilities of the iPhone, or Apple will risk losing the dominance in that arena they have built up. Fortunately, Apple won't let this happen.
How about keeping the iPhone storage sizes small, and making it so that your iPod is used as external storage thorough bluetooth, or wirelessly.
just make them all like the iPhone in size, features except phone / safari / mail of course. it would keep the product line simple to understand and wouldn't cannibalize the iPhone.
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What does this mean? They're suggesting as expected? Is the expectation that they were going to suggest it? Or is their suggesting that Apple will release a new iPod, as expected? Since the expectations of the new iPod are just guesses, isn't it just more guesses?
I know, a wet dream, but one can dream......
I predict the next iPod will essentially be an Apple TV "to-go" with an iPhone like screen/interface. You can sync and receive streams like Apple TV (including youtube) via wifi. When you leave your house, everything that was sync'd is available offline.
Now, if Apple will just add movie rentals to Apple TV/iTunes, I'll buy the Apple TV and this new generation iPod too.
I guess it has to do with their captive audience being totally out of the loop when it comes to emerging technology; You know, the type of investor who relies on others for advice instead of actually understanding the details of market forces.
The rest of us can just sit back on the consumer end and ruefully shake our collective head at the overly-loud headscratching and pondering.
I still be getting the iPhone when my cellphone contract is up, but it won't be my primary iPod