Analyst predicts 10m iPods in June quarter

Apple's June quarter is likely to churn out 9.5-10 million iPod sales if the company maintains its current progress, according to Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster. "Our analysis of iPod unit data from NPD for the month of May leads us to a preliminary iPod approximation of between 9.5 million and 10 million units for the June 2007 quarter (our model calls for 10.5 million iPods in the quarter and Street consensus is 9.8 million)," the analyst said. Munster warned, however, that the approximation is based on various assumptions and is likely to change slightly after the third month of data is released.

"Our analysis of NPD iPod unit data starts by looking at the percentage contribution in NPD data from each month of the quarter in past June quarters," Munster said. "In June 2006 and June 2005, iPod unit shipments were broken down monthly as follows (on average): April - 27 percent, May - 32 percent, and June - 41 percent."

Using the first two months of NPD data and the typical percentage of iPods shipped in the first two months, the firm can extrapolate to get an estimate for what NPD data would look like for the full June 2007 quarter.

Using the estimate for NPD data in the full June 2007 quarter, we can measure the year-over-year and sequential growth rates vs. the June 2006 quarter and March 2007 quarter NPD iPod units.

"Applying the growth rates implied in the extrapolated full June 207 quarter NPD data estimate to the iPod unit shipment actuals for June 2006 and March 2007, we can arrive at an average estimate for total actual shipments in the quarter. Our analysis points to iPod units of 8.5-9 million in the Jun-07 quarter, but NPD data has undershot actual iPod units by an average of 13 percent over the last 3 quarters, so factoring this in we arrive at a number between 9.5m and 10.0m for the June quarter."

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